Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Bill reaches Cat 4

This morning, Hurricane Bill was upgraded to a Category 4 Hurricane - with sustained winds of 135mph. Bill is a beautiful storm and has yet to impact any land mass... the best kind of hurricane.

The models have been in agreement for sometime predicting a recurvature between Bermuda and the East Coast - but still have significant spread on just how that will occur.

However, it is getting more and more likely that some land will eventually feel the effects of Bill - and nearly guaranteed that there will be some serious wave action and beach erosion up and down the entire east coast late this week and weekend. Nova Scotia seems to be the ultimate landfall target at the moment, but landfall could be anywhere from Cape Cod, MA to Newfoundland. Bill will likely weaken by that point this weekend or early next week, but could still be anywhere from a Cat 1-Cat 3 at landfall. Bill's large size will ensure that rain, wave, surge, and wind effects are felt dozens to hundreds of miles from the official point of landfall.

The NOGAPS model in particular is the most westward of the models, and is predicting a landfall Sunday evening on Nantucket Island. Of course, this is only one model, and it's still 3-4 days out, so at this point if I were living in New England, I would just remain alert, and be prepared for evacuations, if necessary.

Stay safe out there everyone, and stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for the most up to date, official forecasts.


Sarah said...

my little prof met :)

Janet said...

Finally getting caught up on blog sites...awesome posts.
it's fun to see all your knowledge in print..I love it!

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