I'm in Norman reconnecting with the wonderful weather/climate community here. It's one of those things that I never realize how much I miss until I come back and I'm "in it" again for awhile... there are some really great people here with even greater people arriving every day. Yeah for progressive weather/climate folks!
When I found out last year I'd be going to a weather conference in Oklahoma this spring I was excited to experience some good ol' spring thunderstorms/severe weather. It looks like I'll be witnessing some historic weather in Oklahoma/Kansas after all this week... just didn't expect it to be winter weather!!
From the National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma...
WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES THIS EVENING TO THE WINTER STORM
WATCH. 00Z NAM IS JUST ARRIVING. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS POTENTIAL
TO BE A PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT AND DISRUPTIVE HEAVY SNOW EVENT
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON. NAM
AND GFS HAVE BEEN STICKING TO THEIR GUNS WITH RUN-TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN THE RANGE OF 20+ INCHES IN PARTS OF NW OK AND ADJACENT KS/TX -
WHICH IS HARD TO BELIEVE AT ANY TIME OF THE YEAR MUCH LESS THE
FIRST WEEK OF SPRING. 00Z NAM HAS DOUBLE-DIGIT TOTALS INTO EXTREME
NW OK BY MID-EVENING FRIDAY... 15-20 INCHES INTO HARPER COUNTY BY
09Z SAT... AND AGAIN DUMPS AN EXTRAORDINARY 30+ INCHES IN SW KS.
THIS RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY IS LEADING TO
INCREASING CONCERN THAT THIS SNOW EVENT WILL BE ONE FOR THE
AGES... AND THAT WE NEED TO RAMP IT UP FURTHER WITH WHAT AMOUNTS
TO A "PDS" WINTER STORM WATCH. UPDATED WSW WILL TREND THAT WAY
AND SHOULD BE OUT BY 10 PM. STRONG WINDS AND RELATED BLOWING/DRIFTING
EASILY COULD MAKE THIS ONE OF THE MOST CRIPPLING S-PLAINS
SNOWSTORMS IN RECENT HISTORY... ALTHOUGH CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT WIND SPEEDS ARE UNLIKELY TO ATTAIN BLIZZARD CRITERIA. ALL
USERS ARE URGED TO TAKE THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION SERIOUSLY AND
PREPARE AS WELL AS POSSIBLE FOR WHAT MAY END UP BEING ESSENTIALLY
AN UNPRECEDENTED LATE-SEASON HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN NW OK.
Wow, now that's a discussion. Reminds me of the Slidell WFO right before Katrina. (which is now the gold standard for justified extreme event hyping). Let's hope everyone can ride out this storm safely, and just enjoy it with some hot cocoa!
and... from Kansas City...
OTHER MAJOR CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY LOWS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS MONTH
AVERAGING SOME 3F TO 6F ABOVE AVERAGE...SPRING VEGETATION HAS
SPROUTED EARLY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER WHERE GROWING DEGREE DAY ACCUMULATIONS HAVE EXCEEDED
100F TO 120F. MOST VULNERABLE APPEAR TO BE STRAWBERRY BLOOMS AND
PERENNIAL FLOWERS...AS WELL EARLY PEACH BLOOMS...BOTH OF WHICH WOULD
BE DAMAGED BY TEMPERATURES AOB 28F (OTHER DECORATIVE BLOOMING TREES
WOULD ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE...THOUGH LITTLE IN PREVENTATIVE MEASURES
WOULD REALISTIC). FORECAST LOWS ARE FORECAST RIGHT NEAR THIS
THRESHOLD...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE STATEMENTS IN FUTURE FORECASTS. AN
INTERESTING SIDELIGHT HERE IS THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF SNOW
COVER...WHICH WHILE ALLOWING AIR TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE THAN
WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED...WOULD ALSO CONVERSELY INSULATE AND
PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION. IN WHICH CASE...GROUND BASED
VEGETATION WOULD BE SAFE...WHILE TREE BLOOMS WOULD STILL BE DAMAGED.
Societal impacts for strawberry farmers!! In a NWS forecast discussion! Whoa.