Overheard at an uptown New Orleans coffee shop...

new orleans before a hurricane. it's an eerie, funny feeling. like watching the most relaxed guy you've ever met slowly strap on a possibly faulty parachute and climb aboard a skydive plane. what will happen? who knows.
i'm at a coffee shop right now, and there are no less than 2 other separate conversations going on right now about "evacuate, don't evacuate... i remember camille back in '69 and boy it was bad when the whole state of mississippi ran out of gas and i was allergic to my mom's cat...."
so evacs are now scheduled to start friday for the swampy parishes south of here - people that live 2hrs south of I-10 on the bayou. My flight to Kansas (next stop on what may be a very memorable Labor Day weekend) is Friday at 2:10pm, so I think I'll be ok. I just checked the wind rating of my windows to see if I need to put up plywood boards, and they are rated to 150mph (category 5) so I think it should be fine. meg is making plans to take pepper and drive up to slidell to her parents on Friday, and then to her sister's house in Pensacola this weekend. I just hope the state has prepared enough over the last three years.

Slight update:
The link under "enough" in the sentence above points to the fact that many levee improvement projects are currently underway in the West Bank of New Orleans the last few weeks and months - an area largely spared in Katrina. This story gives a good overview of levee projects since Katrina across the entire metro area, for those interested.

Gustav - Wed. morning update

Overnight, Gustav has stalled out over the mountains of Haiti - where there is likely a living watery hell taking place for many people there - the most vulnerable country in the Western Hemisphere to hurricanes. Flooding and mudslides have been reported, and we won't know until a few days how bad it is - the ground is already saturated from Fay's rains last week, and it won't take much for deforested hillsides to give way in the hills and slums outside of Port-au-Prince.

Also overnight, many of the previously outlying computer models have converged on a path taking Gustav to Louisiana early next week. This increases the confidence of the forecast I put up yesterday - a major hurricane making landfall - probably in the south central Louisiana coast (Lake Charles to Grand Isle?) on Monday or Tuesday. The time to prepare is now.



I'm at JFK right now heading down to New Orleans for a quick (pre-planned) trip - which I feel is going to turn into 72-hours of hurricane preparations. I'll keep you updated.

Hurricane Gustav - now a serious Gulf Coast threat

Hurricane Gustav, now just south of Haiti, strengthened overnight from a tropical depression to a strong category 1 hurricane. This process took only 15 hours - the fastest rate of strengthening ever recorded for a tropical depression in the Atlantic basin.

More importantly, Gustav now poses an even more serious immediate threat to the islands of the Caribbean, and this weekend, to the US Gulf Coast. The latest forecast from the NHC calls for Gustav to enter the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane on Saturday, just off the western tip of Cuba. As of today the 5-day NHC forecast ends there - but my best guess would be a final landfall as a strong hurricane (Category 2-3+) somewhere between Houston and Mobile on Monday, though right now landfall could realistically be anywhere from Brownsville, Tx to Tampa, Fl. Some models show Gustav reaching Category 5 before landfall. Bottom line, there WILL be a hurricane landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast early next week. Just to keep perspective on how serious this is, Ivan, Dennis, Katrina, and Rita were all Category 3 (major hurricanes) at landfall. And we all remember them.


This is the graphic that really scares me. Not only has Gustav already undergone record-setting rapid intensification, but its path takes it directly over the warmest waters of the Caribbean, and then over the warmest part of the loop current this weekend in the Gulf. And we remember also what the loop current did for Katrina.

The National Weather Service office in Slidell, LA, who famously warned of the impending threat of catastrophe that Katrina posed, has started to pick up on the serious threat of Gustav. This is from their latest forecast discussion:

From LIX:

LONG TERM...
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE NICE FOR THE MOST PART LOCALLY BUT WITH A DEGREE OF UNEASINESS AS HURRICANE GUSTAV APPEARS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF BY WAY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SUNDAY. THE FORECAST PERIOD BEYOND MONDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF GUSTAV. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...WE ARE NEARING THE PEAK OF THE SEASON...WHICH IS SEPTEMBER 10TH. THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SHOWS 10 NAMED STORMS DIRECTLY IMPACTING OUR FORECAST AREA SINCE 1851. CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE THE HIGHEST HEAT CONTENT IS FOUND. AN EDDY OF VERY WARM WATERS RESIDES AROUND 25N 90W BUT WATER HEAT CONTENT AND DEPTH REALLY FALL OFF NORTH OF 27N...WHICH MAY WORK IN SOMEONE`S FAVOR WHEREVER GUSTAV ULTIMATELY TREKS. DEEP LAYERED WIND PROFILES OVER THE SYSTEM WOULD SUPPORT MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN THE CATEGORY 3 RANGE...AND A FEW OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY MODELS DO RAMP INTENSITY OF GUSTAV INTO LOW END CATEGORY 5 THOUGH A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS LEVEL OFF IN THE LOW END CATEGORY 3...WHICH LOCAL RESEARCH SUPPORTS. TIME WILL TELL IF WE MAY BE FACED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DESTINY ALONG OUR SHORES. CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRUDENT OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

Maximum intensity of Category 3 to 5... "Destiny on our Shores".... scary stuff. So pay attention this week guys.

Start today getting your important papers in order, thinking about where you might go if you have to evacuate, and digging out your Home Depot gift cards. If the forecasts stays on this track, start your preparations to leave before the weekend. And keep up with the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center. Anything they say will trump the forecasts of the Weather Channel, or your local media.

Barack and Roll

Maybe this redeems him as a revolutionary in my book. Enjoy. =)

Gustav, and a Fay recap

The next tropical system in the Atlantic was born this morning. Tropical Depression 7 should be upgraded later today to Tropical Storm Gustav, as this is the only Tropical Depression in known memory to already have an eye.

Latest satellite image of pre-Gustav

The models are split right now on the likely path, some taking the storm south of Cuba toward the Yucatan and Gulf of Mexico, others taking it north over Haiti towards south Florida. Both are scary.

As the remnants TS Fay churn away north of Louisiana, it's a good time to remind everyone that the number one cause of death in hurricanes is flooding, not winds. Although Fay never officially reached hurricane status, it caused a lot of flooding - including over half the average annual rainfall in northeast Florida - over 26 inches in 3 days near Melbourne. More people died in Florida (11) than in Haiti (10) as a result of Fay - mostly due to the much longer time Fay spent over Florida, but also due to some people like this guy who don't take tropical storms seriously. Although Haiti had the worst score on my Hurricane Vulnerability Index, Florida was about middle of the road, with places like the Bahamas, Puerto Rico, and Cuba scoring much higher.

Obama-Biden

today i'm trying to think about joe biden - i'm not overly excited about him, but i think it was a safe decision. he will be obama's attack dog - saying things that obama is too nice to say. a worker. i've also started to rethink the way i think about obama - realizing over the last few weeks that he's not as revolutionary as what i might have hoped - but maybe what we need is someone that is practical and not a revolutionary. we have a lot of problems that need to be solved.

Around Bushwick

From my walk this morning around the neighborhood.

TS Fay

Newly formed Tropical Storm Fay just made passage overnight over the DR and Haiti - a woman and her two young nephews were killed after their truck was swept off the road into a gulley in the DR by a flash flood. I imagine more such stories will emerge in the coming days.

Fay has the potential to strengthen into a hurricane in the next couple of days as it approaches Cuba and crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting a Florida landfall for the Tampa/St. Pete area - but taking into account current trends, this could shift farther towards the FL panhandle in the coming days. Everyone in Florida west of Miami - and the entire Gulf Coast, including New Orleans - should be prepared for what could be a nasty start to the week.

My new bike

If you were in Bushwick, Brooklyn at about 5:30pm last night, you might have seen me riding around town with my brand new 1986 Trek road bike. It's a beauty.

Plan for tonight: laps around Prospect Park.

NCAR cuts funding for climate impacts

Last week, the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO made a puzzling decision. It cut funding for the Center for Capacity Building - the primary vehicle with which research on weather and climate impacts are used to assist developing countries prepare for climate change and weather extremes. Over the last few years, I've gotten to know the director of the CCB, Mickey Glantz, pretty well and have the highest respect for what he has done to advance the interface between social science and meteorology. Not only is the loss of this center a severe setback for those countries who would benefit from Mickey's expertise - but it also calls into question the priorities of NCAR as an institution concerned about making the outputs of its scientists useful for the people who most need them.

I'm sure Mickey will continue to have a successful career - though unfortunately just not with the resources and support of NCAR.

Some related articles:
Climate Change program to aid poor nations is shut - New York Times

Dismay over cuts at climate program - Dot Earth
"You have to protect your core" - Prometheus
Abrupt termination of program raises fundamental questions - Climate Science Watch

NCAR - Center for Capacity Building home page

NASA's Climate Time Machine

Scary.

Back in NY

Well, after what seems like a long week of travelling and resting, I'm back in New York now, commuting on the subway again and eating raisin bran and soy milk like nothing ever happened.

It's been a bit of a whirlwind few days, trying to get re-settled in, submitting aaaaall my receipts to get reimbursed, and hanging out with friends here in NY. I'll try to keep up with regular updates!

Gobbles and Lipstits

Hope your neck's in shape...

Really? REALLY?

The hotel fireplace

A perfect place to spend hours reading...

Hiking on Zomba Mountain