How things have changed in the last 4 years...

From electoral-vote.com, a comparison of how much each state has shifted since the week before the 2004 election. Pay most attention to the last column, which shows the difference between polls taken the week before the last election, and the polls this week. It's pretty overwhelming.

By my counting, 42 states have become more Democratic in the last 4 years, and 22 states (22!) have shifted Democratic by at least 10 points. A somewhat meta way of thinking about this graph is, states on the top are more open to "change", and states on the bottom are a little more stuck in the mud. (In the case of places like DC and RI, maybe because they were already very strongly Democratic) But, I'm proud to say, Kansas is right about in the middle, at #30 - with a Democratic shift of +7 points.

One more thing: For some reason there's a looooooooooooong scroll, but it's worth it, I guarantee you. =)

Comparison of 2004 and 2008
It is instructive to compare the state of polling in 2004 as of the Tuesday before the election with state of polling yesterday. The table below shows the the Kerry - Bush score on Oct. 26, 2004 in column 2. Hawaii is an outlier because there was one freaky poll, but, on Oct. 26, 2004, the map showed Kerry ahead of Bush by 9 points in California, by 8 points in Illinois, and behind Bush by 8 points in New Mexico. The third column is the Kerry - Bush election result. For example, the prediction of a 9-point lead in California and an 8-point lead in Illinois were pretty good as Kerry won those states by 10.3 and 10.0 points respectively. The mean of the second column was a Bush lead of 4.4 points whereas the final results was a Bush lead of 6.0 points. These averages are not weighted by population, so they are not predictors of the popular vote, but they do give an idea of how good the 51 polls were a week before the election.

State	Kerry - Bush	Election	Obama-McCain	2008-2004
Hawaii	-1.0	8.7	41.0	42.0
Montana	-21.0	-20.8	0.0	21.0
North Dakota	-20.0	-27.4	0.0	20.0
California	9.0	10.3	27.0	18.0
Illinois	8.0	10.0	26.0	18.0
New Mexico	-8.0	-1.1	10.0	18.0
Indiana	-13.0	-20.9	3.0	16.0
Georgia	-17.0	-16.7	-3.0	14.0
Iowa	-3.0	-0.9	11.0	14.0
New York	21.0	17.3	34.0	13.0
South Dakota	-22.0	-21.5	-9.0	13.0
Wisconsin	-2.0	0.4	11.0	13.0
Wyoming	-36.0	-39.9	-23.0	13.0
Alaska	-27.0	-26.9	-15.0	12.0
Connecticut	9.0	10.3	21.0	12.0
New Jersey	7.0	6.2	19.0	12.0
Texas	-23.0	-22.9	-11.0	12.0
Washington	5.0	7.3	17.0	12.0
North Carolina	-10.0	-12.6	1.0	11.0
Michigan	8.0	3.4	18.0	10.0
Nebraska	-29.0	-34.5	-19.0	10.0
Virginia	-3.0	-8.7	7.0	10.0
Delaware	7.0	7.5	16.0	9.0
Maryland	10.0	12.4	19.0	9.0
Nevada	-6.0	-2.6	3.0	9.0
Oklahoma	-33.0	-31.2	-24.0	9.0
Ohio	-1.0	-2.5	7.0	8.0
Pennsylvania	3.0	2.2	11.0	8.0
Vermont	13.0	20.2	21.0	8.0
Kansas	-19.0	-25.7	-12.0	7.0
Oregon	6.0	4.0	13.0	7.0
South Carolina	-18.0	-17.2	-11.0	7.0
Colorado	1.0	-6.2	7.0	6.0
Minnesota	5.0	3.5	11.0	6.0
Maine	11.0	8.1	16.0	5.0
Massachusetts	14.0	25.1	19.0	5.0
Missouri	-5.0	-7.3	0.0	5.0
Florida	-1.0	-5.0	3.0	4.0
Kentucky	-17.0	-19.8	-13.0	4.0
D.C.	67.0	80.2	69.0	2.0
Rhode Island	20.0	20.6	22.0	2.0
Utah	-37.0	-44.7	-36.0	1.0
Idaho	-29.0	-38.1	-29.0	0.0
Arizona	-5.0	-10.4	-6.0	-1.0
Louisiana	-15.0	-14.6	-16.0	-1.0
New Hampshire	9.0	1.3	8.0	-1.0
Tennessee	-12.0	-14.3	-14.0	-2.0
Mississippi	-9.0	-20.3	-12.0	-3.0
West Virginia	-3.0	-12.9	-8.0	-5.0
Alabama	-12.0	-25.7	-20.0	-8.0
Arkansas	0.0	-9.8	-11.0	-11.0
Average	-4.4	-6.0	3.9	8.3