Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Gustav - Wednesday midday update

Gustav is still having problems crossing Haiti... and the exact center of the storm is now fairly hard to find. This stalling has effects for the track later in the forecast period - with the placement of the storm in relation to the high forecasted to be over the southeast US this weekend (the main steering mechanism for Gustav once it reaches the Gulf), and therefore perhaps introducing a slight right-ward shift in the track. Also the notable decrease in organization (and windspeed) today may delay restrengthening near Cuba for up to 24 hours. However, the fact remains that the oceanic heat content (a measure that takes into account the subsurface as well as surface ocean temperatures) south of Cuba and in the southern Gulf is still exceptionally high. All these points still argue for a strong, yet perhaps slightly delayed hurricane making landfall on the Central Gulf Coast early next week. Only change I might make right now is maybe extend my range from Lake Charles to Gulfport, MS and timing from Monday/Tuesday to Tuesday/Wednesday AM. Still Category 3 at landfall.

Oceanic Heat Content as of yesterday. Anything over 100 supports a major hurricane.

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