Yet another reason why scientists sometimes make poor communicators:

"INDEX-BASED financial risk transfer mechanisms are being tested in the context of development and climate change adaptation. These instruments show the capacity to dramatically reduce conditions of chronic underdevelopment by both enabling investment and reducing shocks in agricultural livelihoods. However, important issues have been raised, including the potential for scaling up and the role of climate-informed science to help overcome some of the challenges to scale up. The IRI is convening experts from fields as diverse as reinsurance, climate science, economics and food security to participate in an upcoming workshop, in an effort to gain insight on how innovative tools and research can best serve development, today. "

Why not just say, "We are trying to save poor farmers in Africa from droughts. Do you want to come here for a day conference and talk about it with us?"

What next?

Now that the bailout/rescue/whatever has passed... what next?

We are at one of those turning points of American history-
The Revolutionary War
The great push West
The War between the States
Pearl Harbor
The civil rights movement
Now: The making of the green economy. The realization that we're all connected. The end of poverty.

This moment entered our consciousness on September 11th - that maybe we aren't as strong and dominant and destined to rule the world as we might think - but it has its roots going all the way back to the end of World War II. America as victor, and the entitlement that comes with it. And now, that moment in world history with America at the top is beginning to end.

But that doesn't mean we have to go all the way to the bottom. Everything we're experiencing now (now, meaning the last 10 years or so) - the rise of the internet, globalization, the energy crisis, climate change, terrorism, the stock market crash - are all related. It's just the world's way of leveling the playing field. How long have people in Africa, India, and China waited for their shot? How long have we kept them from getting it? It's not an either/or game. Everyone can be better off if we work together, if we're more respectful, if we keep each other in mind.

To me, the election this year is a fundamental part of this narrative. John McCain embodies the past. Vietnam War veteran, Iraq war supporter - both symbols of failed American influence abroad - if elected, the oldest 1st term president in history. Barack Obama - who has mobilized more than 2 million volunteers on the internet - the largest grassroots political coalition in American history - son of an African immigrant and a single mother from Kansas - a picture of 21st century America.

I can see how this is a little scary for many people. The future, the unknown, is always scary. But it is necessary if America is to survive. America has always stood for hope, as a refuge for the outcast. We can still be an example to the world - not of the power of the individual, but of the power of everyone - working together.

Listen well. Some thoughts on silence...

Last night I attended a reading of two short stories at Symphony Space on the Upper West Side. Salman Rushdie hosted - and Anthony Rapp (Mark in the original cast of Rent) read the second story, "The Year of Silence" by Kevin Brockmeier, originally published in the literary journal Ecotone. Both stories were part of the 2008 edition of "30 Best American Short Stories" which, by chance, also includes my friend's sister, Karen Russell. It was a fun night, and I don't normally do this sort of thing, but I'm glad I did.

So, my thoughts on silence... (as a firetruck siren blares outside my window, and the subway rattles by...)

First, a quick synopsis of the story (skip ahead if you're planning on reading it yourself): For no apparent reason one spring morning, for a few seconds the entire city spontaneously becomes quiet - as if all the pauses of ordinary life lined up at the same moment. The next week, it happens again, for a few seconds longer. Pretty soon, these moments of silence begin to make their way into the collective consciousness in the city, people start looking forward to them, start to appreciate the sense of peace, of contentment, of being that these moments bring. The city passes a law banning all noise. Streets and sidewalks are paved with rubber, pretty soon the only sound is the birds, the rain, and the wind. And, the city is peaceful. Crime rates drop, romances begin and end as people begin to experience life in a deeper way than anyone thought possible. After several months, people begin to settle in to their new world - but something is missing. One day, all the spontaneous sounds of this nearly quiet city align - coughs, stubbed toes, dog barks. It happens again the next week. Sounds, noise, start to overtake the city again. Eventually, the ban on quiet is lifted - as people realize that their worlds had become too predictable... they needed the spark, the energy that their noisy city brought them.

As performed by Anthony Rapp (an amazing performer, and an amazing person), Kevin Brockmeier's story resonated... I could feel the entire audience in quiet assention on this. Now this was quite a liberal crowd, and some of them very well may have regular moments of voluntary silence in their lives, but they were still New Yorkers. And New Yorkers are noisy. But, it was a great thought experiment. How would we react to a world with no noise? Could we handle it?

For the times in my life where I've been able to be in silence (JVC, SLU retreats, Africa) it has been something to treasure. Now, in New York, at times I feel all the jumble that the noisy city brings, and it is overwhelming. I tell my friends that I couldn't survive the city if I didn't have a job that let me leave every day - and see the green trees of the Hudson Valley. Sometimes I wish I could quit my job and just be. Silent, reflective, contemplative. Just be. But then, what would be the fun in that?

MLB playoffs.... Day 1

“I’m just being Manny,” Manny said.

Don't worry too much yet, Cubs fans.

TBS has Dennis Eckersley and Cal Ripken as commentators throughout the playoffs.... blast from the past!

This will be fun.


Day 2 UPDATE:
Ok, now you can worry, Cubs fans. =(

Huge polling day for Obama

The Obama train has officially left the station, and it looks like it's going to be hard to stop.

Quinnipac, a very well-respected national polling agency, released this morning a series of pre- and post-debate swing state polls from Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. All of these polls show Obama ahead by 5-8 points. All of these polls show Obama gaining 1-2 points immediately following the first debate. Remember, assuming Obama holds Michigan and Pennsylvania (which went to Kerry in the 2004 election), Obama needs to win just one other major swing state to win the election. McCain needs to win them all.

This is quickly becoming a show-stopper for McCain. His ship is sinking, and I think he knows it.

Next up: Palin gets the boot.

You heard it here first... the next trick up the sleeve of John McCain will be to unofficially send Sarah Palin on the next flight back to Alaska. Of course, this would be under the pretext of Sarah 'deciding for herself' that family comes first, and that another choice for VP might be better suited to put 'country first'. With the economy crashing by the minute, the obvious choice would be Mitt Romney - someone with economic experience that would need little or no introduction on the national scene. It just might be crazy enough to work.

This has happened before, and with McCain's flair for the dramatic, I wouldn't put it past him. Even conservatives are starting to turn against Palin. The debate tomorrow vs. Biden should go a long way in deciding Palin's short term fate (and long term future as a national political figure). If the boot happens, the guys at fivethirtyeight.com seem to think it would mean surrender for McCain. But then again, you never know. Maybe this is the October surprise that brings the race back to a tie.

Polling-wise, the combination of the stock market crash (and how both candidates handled it) and the first presidential debate (the first introduction to the candidates for a lot of armchair voters) seemed to solidify support for Obama on the national level (the race has gone from basically a tie 10 days ago to Obama +5 today). Most importantly, a lot of swing states have recently also been strongly trending toward Obama - namely Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida (and to a lesser extent, Ohio, Indiana and Missouri). Assuming Iowa and New Mexico go to Obama - he needs to win only one of these 6 to win the election.

Letter to Nancy Boyda (D-KS)

Here's a copy of a letter I just sent to my representative, Nancy Boyda.

Hi Nancy,

The House messaging service is down right now, but I wanted to send you a quick note. Sorry if you're being bombarded!

I have to admit, I was a little disappointed when I saw that you voted against the bailout package yesterday. But, after reading your statements, I agree that the money could and should be spent more wisely than was proposed. Especially for things like building the new green energy economy, and making sure those jobs stay here, so our economy is stronger in the future.

My main issue is that you seem to be taking a partisan stance. I understand you're in a close re-election campaign, and the people of KS-02 are probably strongly against any more of their tax money being thrown into the fire on this problem. But this problem - the biggest economic crisis since the great depression - is bigger than partisan politics. And I do think congressional action sooner rather than later - even if it's just a start, is absolutely vital to instilling a bit of confidence in the markets and getting us back on track. The downside risks are too great for inaction.

That said, I trust your judgement and your priorities. It's going to be a tough couple of weeks.

Best of luck on the re-election campaign.

Eric Holthaus
Osage City, KS
currently New York, NY

10/2 UPDATE:
The House passed the Senate-altered version of the bailout package today - which included such things as an extra $100B of tax breaks for small businesses and alternative energy in order to win more votes. The bill is designed that when (if!) the market recovers, all $700B will be paid back to the taxpayers from the companies being bailed out.

Boyda still voted no. But, this is understandable as she's in a close race for re-election. And, I agree with her - now that we've bailed out wall street, we need to focus on bailing out main street. (Green Jobs for Kansas!)

MLB playoffs start tonight!

After 6 months of battling it out day after day (and a rough weekend series for the Twins versus my 4th-place Royals), the White Sox and Twins are tied for the AL Central lead. A one game playoff tonight will decide the division champion.

After that, it's on.

Personally, (like many other dreamers) I'm picking the Cubs to win the Series this year. The story is just too great, and the team is too deep not to like them. 100 years since their last championship. Great starting pitchers. So, Cubs over Tampa Bay in 6 games.

***
As for me, I won my (not very active) fantasy baseball league this year. I've played about 5 different years now, and won twice. It's a lot of fun. Here's the final standings and my roster throughout the season.

Debate (maybe) cancelled

Yesterday afternoon, McCain "suspended his campaign" to focus on travelling back to Washington to help out with the negotiations over the proposed $700B bailout of the economy. Interesting wording, "suspended" - I've only heard that word used when candidates withdraw from the primary races. McCain immediately pulled all his advertising, cancelled his appearance on Letterman, and has asked to postpone Friday's debate.

I'm bummed, because presidential debates are like the superbowl for politicos. At fivethirtyeight.com, there's a good post that relates the two - and how people look forward to the debates for months... if they don't happen, you're going to feel a little disappointed.

Bush's speech last night actually went a long way toward convincing me that the bailout is necessary. Expensive, yes, but necessary. Because, we don't want the economy to grind to a halt. And, I am definitely convinced (and have been for awhile) that this is the biggest financial crisis since the great depression. In a sense, it is the culmination of American exceptionalism since the end of WWII, our lives of excess, our huge footprint on the greater world order... all of that is coming home to roost. And what a fitting end to the Bush presidency.

Elsewhere,
Houston/Galveston is still suffering the effects of Hurricane Ike, and will be for weeks and years to come. Galveston residents were allowed back to their homes for the first time since the storm yesterday, and many were shocked at what they found. Nashville and other places in the southeast have been in a gas crisis all week (caused by lack of supply from Houston) with massive shortages and prices topping $5/gal in places. None of this is making the news. Granted, the overall problems with the economy, and a close presidential race are arguably more important, but still, we've had a major natural disaster, and people are suffering (not unlike during the hurricanes of 2004 and 2005).

And,
I'm heading to Shea tonight to see the Mets and Cubs. I'm excited. I have a feeling the playoffs are going to be great this year. It's cool and cloudy in new york tonight... definitely feels like pennant chase weather.

UPDATE:
Per the Wall Street Journal, Congress has agreed tentatively to the $700B bailout, including strong oversight of the interventions and a $400K cap on executive salaries. Still waiting to see if this means McCain will show up in Mississippi tomorrow night or not.

To put the bailout in perspective, from MSNBC:

Just how big is the proposed Wall Street bailout? Let's look at how it compares to some other numbers...

-- $700 billion: proposed Wall St. bailout
-- $695.4 billion: GDP of Taiwan. If the bailout were a country it would be the 21st largest GDP, larger than most nations.
-- $653 billion: cost of Iraq war (so far)
-- $515.4 billion: proposed 2009 Pentagon budget
-- $315 billion: McCain's nuclear energy plan
-- $295 billion: amount Pentagon overspent original budgets by.
-- $150 billion: Obama's energy plan
-- $50-$65 billion: Obama's health care plan, per year
-- $59.2 billion: proposed 2009 U.S. education budget
-- $10 billion: McCain health care proposals, per year
-- $38 million: Hank Paulson's post-2004 salary as Chairman, CEO of Goldman Sachs
-- 16.1 million: number of median Ohio household incomes ($43,371 as of 2004) that would add up to the bailout -- or about THREE Ohios.

UPDATE #2:
McCain has just confirmed he will attend the debate tonight.

I'm so excited for Thanksgiving in Tennessee... =)

from becca, my old, good, Tennessee friend:

so, i'll tell you about the farm since you are going! it is kind of interesting there. i maybe should have told you before you decided to come, but i don't think you'll have a problem with anything. its in the middle of nowhere in McEwen, TN, west of Nashville. the town has no traffic light. There is a Dairy Queen that has everything you could imagine. Like everything. They have meat and three stuff and all sorts of craziness. There is a little Catholic church and school. Maybe 1 other restaurant, a pizza place... that may be it. Oh, there is a new gas station that has pizza and has Baskin Robbins! Oh, and there is a new Sonic which was a big deal. But no McDonalds! How fun is that! The farm is maybe 10 minutes from town. We have a couple hundred acres I think. The farmhouse is kind of old. The original burnt to the ground in I think 1925ish and the neighboring farmers all chipped in materials and help to rebuild it. It looks and seems older than it is, I guess because of that. There is the house, a barn, and some other little buildings like a smoke house, outhouse, wood shed, and a couple more that had old farmy purposes. Inside the house, there are beds everywhere. We added a bathroom a few years ago, so there is now a toilet that flushes! and a shower! and a sink outside of the kitchen! before that we used the outhouse, which some people still do cause there is always someone in the bathroom, or go behind a tree. When I was little we would all go down there for a week with the moms and we would take baths in the creek. Anyway, there are 2 front rooms. one has a big bed where my parents sleep, and the wood burning stove for heating the house is in there, and some chairs. it is the hang out room often. the other front room has three beds- i sleep in one that i have slept in forever. everyone else (of the cousins) decided they had to sleep upstairs b/c there are several adults who snore downstairs, but i just bring my ipod and deal with it. My Aunt Marie and Uncle Pete have a bed in that room, and there is another bed that is not really designated for anyone. We have this cousin, Anne, who is around my parents age and she stays sometime and sleeps there, but she doesn't seem to like to stay a lot. The bathroom is off that room too. There is the back bedroom where Uncle Jerry and Aunt Beba sleep. There is a dining room and a kitchen. Off the dining room are the stairs that go up to the loft area, which is full of beds. Tons of beds. My cousins sleep up there (Angela and her husband Jessi, Ab and his girlfriend Raven if she comes, Lori and her husband Jake, Josh, and Lindsey, my sister and her husband and the babies if they stay there, and friends if anyone else brings friends which they usually do). You'll probably have a bed up there, or if Anne is not going to stay overnight then you can sleep in the other bed downstairs if you want. Outside we have a fire pit and seats and stuff around it. so, there will be probably 16 people, 17 if cousin Anne stays, and 4 more if my sister and her family stays. I think they will stay with Jason's family though and just hang out at the farm some cause Jason's family has a modern house in town. Oh, you can't drink the water cause it is well water and we don't know if it is safe. So we always bring bottled water, but the water is fine for showers and cooking hot stuff and teeth brushing, and I am sure would be fine if you didn't drink too much. But we bring water. There is always a lot of food. We'll probably just be there for Thanksgiving dinner on Thursday, which will hopefully have enough veggie stuff for you. We usually have sweet potato something, mashed potatoes, green beans, corn, stuffing, cranberry sauce stuff, rolls, and then turkey of course. If there is something else you want me and you can make something and take it down to contribute.

can't wait. =)

Scranton, PA

On Saturday, I spent the day in Scranton, Pennsylvania with a large bunch of other Obama supporters from the New York area - knocking on doors and talking to undecided voters. As Pennsylvania is considered a swing state (or at best, "lean Obama"), time spent there is much more useful than time spent back in Brooklyn. As many studies have shown, for approximately every 14 door knocks, one new vote is generated from someone that otherwise would have stayed home, or voted the other way (compared to 1 vote for 35 phone calls, or a negligible impact for email forwards). Knocking on doors is the single most important thing you can do to help generate more votes for your candidate.

Scranton was big Hillary country in the Primaries, but is also home to Obama's VP running-mate Joe Biden. It's a very catholic, blue-collar, union, hard-working city. The main issues people talked about were the economy, the war, and abortion. (The NY Times had an article last week about the Catholic vote in Scranton.

The Scranton office was packed with volunteers. There was, conservatively, probably about 400 volunteers going canvassing. Their goal was 10,000 door knocks on Saturday alone, and I'd be surprised if they didn't reach that goal (I did about 40-50 doors myself). All in all, it was a very rewarding experience - I'm planning on going a couple more times before the election.

If you live in or near a swing state (per MSNBC:

Lean Obama: IA, MN, NJ, NM OR, PA, WA (76 votes)
Toss-up: CO, MI, NV, NH, OH, VA, WI (78 votes)
Lean McCain: FL, IN, MO, MT, NC (67 votes)

I strongly encourage you to go to www.barackobama.com or your local Obama field office (example: ny.barackobama.com for new york) and sign up for some door knocking yourself. It's fun!


Our New York-Scranton PA group on Saturday.

The highlight of the IRI retreat

Yesterday was our first organization-wide long-range planning happy-feely work retreat in 4 years. It actually turned out to be a pretty fun chance to bond with my co-workers, meet people down the hall that I always see but have never talked to, and build up excitement in a nerdy, saving the world sort of way.

Here was the highlight, sung by my co-worker and friend Judy to the tune of 'Summertime' by Gershwin:

It's CRM baby @ the IRI

Climate's Changin'
And the weather is tricky
Ice caps meltin'
And the temperature's high

It's feast not famine
For the folks in Malawi
If the rains are late
Still the children won't cry

You've got your payout
There's a'nothin' can harm you
Weather index insurance standing by

Don't waste no water
In greater metro Manila
Now you've shared the rains
With the peasants nearby

With your new contracts
There's a'nothin' can harm you
Probabilities shifting: forty for dry

It's CRM Baby
@ the IRI

So let me see if I understand this right...

By allowing big Wall Street investment banks to fail (or at least, assist in their liquidation/cut-rate mergers), the federal government is:

-Sending a signal that large investment banks should be more vigilant about the types of investments they make.
-Thus forcing smaller banks/real estate firms/insurance companies to be less willing to grant mortgages for houses people cannot afford.
-Thus forcing a change in behavior by millions of Sam and Sally Homeowners who have spent well beyond their means in the last 10 years, and causing them to forclose on their dream McMansion in the suburbs.
-Thus forcing Americans to cut back on their spending and their lifestyle.

And making average people like me (who, I thought, was investing responsibly) lose 50% of their retirement savings in the process. Here's how I've done over the past 3 days.

But, taking a bath once in a while is healthy, right?

Seriously, I honestly think this correction/crash/recession is a good thing. Despite a lot of short term pain, it will force us as Americans to live a more balanced, sustainable lifestyle. Remember all those stories of your grandma saving and reusing scraps of tinfoil during the Great Depression? Yeah, that.

It's kind of fun if you forget about how much of your savings you're losing and all the people that are going to be out of jobs.

The government should be bailing THEM out, not the wall street types.



In other news,
This song from The Black Keys seems appropriate for today.

Kings and sons of god
Traveled on their way from here
Calmin restless mobs
easing all of their, all of their fear

Strange Times
Are Here

The statue in the square
meant so much when it first stodd
people come from far and near
bless them if, bless them if it would

Strange Times
Are Here

Sadie, dry your tears
I will be the one
to pull you through the mere
before you come, before you come undone

Strange Times
Are Here

Big news day.

Bank failures on wall street, oil below $100, Zimbabwe power-sharing agreement, and Ike fallout.

Is it the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning? I'm optimistic.

Five of the top 10 most emailed stories at NYTimes.com are about Sarah Palin. Is a stock market crash the only thing that can get her name out of the media spotlight?

Or maybe, Tina Fey can. =)

Wichita flooding today, too.

Some rough weather back at home today, too. Pictures literally just down the street from my sis's house.

From the Eagle:

The remnants of Tropical Storm Lowell are rewriting Wichita’s record book.

The record for most rain in a 24-hour period in Wichita was 7.99 inches on Sept. 6-7, 1911. As of 1 p.m. today, 8.27 inches of rain had fallen….in just 12 hours. That number will climb, too.

Update: 24 hour rainfall total was 10.31 inches. Wow.