The Saffir-Simpson scale needs a provision for storm surge.

Inspired by what I think has been a dangerous (deadly) false sense of security in the Houston/Galveston area as a result of the comparatively high surge/low winds of Hurricane Ike - I think I'm going to try to put together a paper for the AMS arguing for a revision to the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Like the current scale, the new scale would be designed to quantify potential damage to homes. The new scale could potentially include a letter after the number, to account for water effects (the number accounts only for wind speeds). For an average Category 2 storm, the designation would be Category 2C, for a storm with below-average flood risk (maybe a fast moving storm) it could be Category 2B or 2A. So maybe Ike, on the new scale could be given a designation of "Category 2E" for "greatly higher than average storm surge/inland flooding potential".

Current scale

CNN: 20,000-30,000 people remain on Galveston Island

This is going to be very bad.

Some 24 hours before landfall, Galveston is already flooding.

From the Houston Chronicle:

Hurricane Ike: the dreaded "fist" has emerged.

A satellite signature of rapid intensification has just emerged in Hurricane Ike - appropriately referred to as "the fist" - and already the winds are jumping higher. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently examining Ike has just recorded a wind speed of Category 3 strength (123kt flight level), equivalent to about 115mph sustained surface winds. Look for an official upgrade to major hurricane strength in the next few hours from the National Hurricane Center.

Ike grows even larger, winds now hitting the coast

A very large and growing Hurricane Ike will make landfall overnight in Texas - scoring almost a direct hit at Cat 2/3 strength - a near worst-case scenario for the Houston/Galveston area. Normally when hurricanes make landfall the strongest winds are confined to a limited region just 20-miles wide or so near the eye wall. Ike is different. Its strongest winds begin about 20 miles from the center - and extend out another 100-120 miles. It has a structure similar to Hurricane Katrina (though Katrina was slightly stronger) - whose effects were felt some 200miles from the point of landfall.

So, New Orleans (about 200 miles from Ike's landfall) has closed its flood gates, and is now experiencing tropical storm force winds, and occasional funnel clouds. This should continue for almost 24 hours.

Galveston could be, simply, devastated. Downtown Houston will take a direct hit. The surge forecast has increased even from yesterday - and surge is expected to be 22-25 ft, with surge over 30ft possible. As the Houston NWS said yesterday, those attempting to ride out the storm on ground level in Galveston face 'near certain death'.

Prayers to all those affected, today and tomorrow.

Hurricane Ike's wind field, as of 11am today.

Maximum storm surge forecast.

Frightening words from Houston NWS office...

In tonight's local hurricane impact forecast for Hurricane Ike, the Houston National Weather Service uses some very graphic and strong language to urge residents to evacuate Galveston Island at all costs:

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:

GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...5 TO 8 FEET

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...5 TO 8 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND
INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND......12 TO 16 FEET

SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 22 FEET

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES... WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

Eerily reminiscent of the Slidell National Weather Service warning prior to Hurricane Katrina.

Tracking Hurricane Ike

Well, after being lulled into a false sense of security early this week, Ike has decided to shift a little farther north over the last 24-36 hours... prompting a tropical storm warning for New Orleans.

This thing is huge. With a capital G. Although Ike is still a mid-category 2 hurricane, Tropical storm force winds extend up to 275 mi from the center, and Hurricane (with a capital rrrRRR!) force winds up to 115 mi! Houston is definitely back in line for a direct hit, even if landfall is technically well to the south. And with a minimal central pressure of 945mb (normally almost a category 4), storm surge will be bad on Galveston Island. If I were anywhere on Galveston today, I'd be getting out.




Update: After checking the latest storm surge models, I'm even more worried for Houston (and to some extent, New Orleans, believe it or not). The NHC expects 20ft storm surge at Galveston, but the latest SLOSH model has a 10% chance of a 30ft(!) storm surge right up Galveston Bay into suburban Houston. There's also a chance for at least 10 ft storm surge around New Orleans, which is close to what was experience recently in Gustav.

The maps below show the storm surge probability as of 11am this morning. The first map shows the likelyhood of receiving a storm surge greater than 5ft, and the second map shows the maximum expected storm surge height.

Eric enters the 21st century.

In the last 36 hours, I have loaded up my new iPod and joined Facebook. Whew! Who knew I could be so with it, finally.

It's great to know all my old friends were just out there, waiting for me. In the past 12 hours, I already have discovered about 7 weddings, 4 new babies, two handfulls of friends I thought I had lost contact with for good - and as a result made 3 phone dates and hopefully a couple of NY meetups. Yay for technology!

Update: from 6 to 160 friends in 12 hours! Beat that Caitlin Hannon! =)

Obama, McCain on campus tomorrow

Barack Obama and John McCain will be on campus here tomorrow to address a summit on community service. It's also September 11th, so it's fitting a summit on community service should take place in New York that day. Should be a good event. Here's an email we received this morning:

To all members of the Columbia community:

On Thursday, September 11, Columbia University will host a ServiceNation Summit event in Alfred Lerner Hall featuring presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama. The purpose of this message is to provide important information about campus access and the events taking place this Thursday.

Please carry your University ID card with you on Thursday to ensure that you can access campus at all times.

LIMITED ACCESS TO LERNER HALL
Lerner Hall will be open only to University ID holders on Sept. 11. Beginning at 2:00 p.m., the Broadway entrance to Lerner Hall will be closed, as will the Lerner Gate at 115th St. and Broadway. After that time, please enter through the building's campus entrance by using your University ID. The first floor of Lerner and the 4th floor corridor near Ferris Booth Commons, including the Package Center, will also be closed at 2:00 p.m.

All other Lerner Hall offices, Café 212, the 3rd floor of Ferris Booth Commons, and the Columbia Bookstore will be open during normal business hours. After 2:00 p.m., the Bookstore will be accessible via the Lerner campus entrance only.

STREET AND SIDEWALK CLOSURES
114th St. between Broadway and Amsterdam Ave. will be closed to vehicular traffic from 12:01 a.m. to 11:59 p.m. on Thursday. "No Parking" signs will also be posted. Please do not park your car on 114th St. overnight on Wednesday or it will be towed by the Police Department.

Pedestrian traffic on 114th St. will be restricted to the south side of the street beginning at 2:00 p.m. At that time, the Carman and John Jay gates will also close.

The east side of Broadway between 114th St. and 116th St. will be closed to pedestrians beginning at 2:00 p.m.

ADDITIONAL GATE CLOSURES
From 5:00 p.m. onward, the campus will be open to University ID holders only, through the following gates:

- 116th St. and Broadway (north walk only)- Note: this gate may be subject to closure depending on pedestrian traffic on Broadway
- 116th St. & Amsterdam Ave. (north walk only)
- Earl Hall Gate (117th St. & Broadway)
- Chapel Gate (117th St. & Amsterdam Ave.) until 6:00 p.m.
- Grove (119th St. & Amsterdam Ave.)
- 120th St. Gate until 6:00 p.m.
- Mudd Building entrance on 120th St. until 6:00 p.m.
- 115th St. & Amsterdam Ave. Gate

** You must present your University ID to enter campus at any gate after 5:00 p.m. **

ACCESS FOR TEMPORARY STAFF
If you have temporary staff who do not have a University ID and who need access to campus on the afternoon of Sept. 11, you will need to make the following accommodations for them. Please prepare a letter on University letterhead stating that the person is reporting for work, specify the campus location, and sign the letter. Please give this letter to your temporary workers before Sept. 11, and please instruct them to carry a photo ID, such as a driver's license, matching the name in the letter.

VIEWING AND PARTICIPATION IN CAMPUS EVENTS
The ServiceNation Summit event will be simulcast on a large screen facing Low Plaza. All University ID holders are invited to view the event here. The simulcast will begin at 7:00 p.m. A live feed of the event will also be accessible via CTV in all Columbia residence halls. It is likely that the event will be broadcast live on major media networks, and we encourage schools and departments to organize screenings where possible.

A series of student-organized events, including a food drive, will run throughout the day. Please check the Columbia homepage for updates on these plans.

Your cooperation during this busy and historic day is greatly appreciated. We hope that you will take advantage of the events surrounding this summit and join the University in recognizing the importance of public service.

Sincerely,

Jeffrey Scott
Executive Vice President
Student and Administrative Services

James McShane
Associate Vice President
Columbia University Public Safety

Happy Tuesday

Some good writing today - celebrating my first ever ipod/subway commute this morning.

From today's NY Times op-ed, written by a Pennsylvania nurse on witnessing her first patient die:
What can one do? Go home, love your children, try not to bicker, eat well, walk in the rain, feel the sun on your face and laugh loud and often, as much as possible, and especially at yourself. Because the only antidote to death is not poetry, or drama, or miracle drugs, or a roomful of technical expertise and good intentions. The antidote to death is life.

From The Amazing Adventures of Kavalier and Clay:
Sammy performed the rapid series of operations - which combined elements of the folding of wet laundry, the shoveling of damp ashes, and the swallowing of a secret map on the point of capture by enemy troops - that passed, in this mother's kitchen, for eating. Then he stood up, wiped his lips with the back of his hand, and pulled on his good wool blazer. "Come on, Joe, we gotta go."

Love life, guys.

Hanna vs. Montauk, Ike on the way

My experience watching Tropical Storm Hanna make landfall on Long Island was everything I could have hoped for. My weather nerd gadget recorded max sustained winds of 29.5mph (and minimum pressure of 998mb), not quite as high as elsewhere around the island, but I would have rather been in Montauk than Coney Island. =)

The next storm is Ike, and the latest from the Gulf Coast is not looking good. Gov. Jindal has declared a state of emergency in advance, requested $160M in emergency federal aid for infrastructure repairs from Gustav ($60M over the limit allowed by law), something like 30% of gas stations across the state are still without power, meaning no gas for potential evacuations, and he's begging state workers in baton rouge to come back to work today to prepare for ike even though it was hardest hit by gustav and still mostly without power, houses damaged, etc. and many people in louisiana, based on times-picayune interviews, probably wouldn't evacuate anyway if another storm came in the next couple weeks. many of those that are most vulnerable are already out of money - dipping into savings for the gustav evacuation - and many of those with means have the perception that gustav wasn't really that bad anyway. what a mess. lets hope evacuations aren't necessary, at least for louisiana.

On to the pictures from this weekend.

Montauk beach with 6-8ft swells.
Surfers contemplating the rad waves.
Forecast: Tropical Storm!
Lawn chairs scattered by the wind.

longest commute EVER!

someone didn't want me to get to work this morning. after leaving my house at 7:39am, I watched the J train pull away as I got to the platform - 10min later, finally one stop away at Broadway Junction, I watched the A train pull away as I got to the platform. These two near misses combined to help me miss the 9am Lamont bus by 3 min. So, as the 10am bus was nearing Lamont, what could it be, but an oil tanker straddled across the highway, leaking its precious cargo into a drain down to the Hudson. Police had closed the highway for the accident, so we on the bus ended up walking the remaining 3/4 mile up to campus. Arriving at my desk at IRI at 10:58am. A 3 hour and 20 minute commute, one way! I could have been most of the way to Florida...



Speaking of Florida, Tropical Storm Hanna arrives tonight in the southeast coast, probably in the Carolinas. Shouldn't be too bad - but could still reach category 1 before landfall. I'll be going to Montauk this weekend to witness her arrival to the northeast. =)

Tonight is Sarah's night

So, now the Republican party also has a historic presidential ticket. Alaska Governor Sarah Palin will present herself to the world tonight at the RNC, trying to be the first female vice president. Personally, this solidifies my support of Obama. Palin has been governor only two years (previously mayor of Wasilla, AK - where I did a 5K 3 years ago! cute town, but as you can guess, not to relevant on the world stage), and to me politically is a cuter, more likable version of Ann Coulter. What's more, the pick shows that McCain is willing to gamble with major decisions. What happens when Iran threatens Israel with a nuke in 2009?

The New York Times is all over the Palin stories this week:

David Brooks says John McCain really hasn't picked his vice president yet.

Maureen Dowd lays out a frighteningly funny scenario where President Palin takes on Putin (she has experience with Russia because it's close to Alaska).

And as far as climate goes (my #1 voting issue), Thomas Friedman argues that John McCain disqualified himself with the choice of Sarah Palin as VP (a staunch advocate of drilling in ANWR).

New Orleans reopens

New Orleans reopens, all checkpoints lifted.

But, it could still be "days" until Entergy restores power to all 825,000 households who lost it.

Gustav dissipates over northern Louisiana

Gustav is history, but unfortunately, more on the way this week and next week...