The next tropical system in the Atlantic was born this morning. Tropical Depression 7 should be upgraded later today to Tropical Storm Gustav, as this is the only Tropical Depression in known memory to already have an eye.
Latest satellite image of pre-Gustav
The models are split right now on the likely path, some taking the storm south of Cuba toward the Yucatan and Gulf of Mexico, others taking it north over Haiti towards south Florida. Both are scary.
As the remnants TS Fay churn away north of Louisiana, it's a good time to remind everyone that the number one cause of death in hurricanes is flooding, not winds. Although Fay never officially reached hurricane status, it caused a lot of flooding - including over half the average annual rainfall in northeast Florida - over 26 inches in 3 days near Melbourne. More people died in Florida (11) than in Haiti (10) as a result of Fay - mostly due to the much longer time Fay spent over Florida, but also due to some people like this guy who don't take tropical storms seriously. Although Haiti had the worst score on my Hurricane Vulnerability Index, Florida was about middle of the road, with places like the Bahamas, Puerto Rico, and Cuba scoring much higher.
Monday, August 25, 2008
Gustav, and a Fay recap
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Obama-Biden
today i'm trying to think about joe biden - i'm not overly excited about him, but i think it was a safe decision. he will be obama's attack dog - saying things that obama is too nice to say. a worker. i've also started to rethink the way i think about obama - realizing over the last few weeks that he's not as revolutionary as what i might have hoped - but maybe what we need is someone that is practical and not a revolutionary. we have a lot of problems that need to be solved.
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Saturday, August 16, 2008
TS Fay
Newly formed Tropical Storm Fay just made passage overnight over the DR and Haiti - a woman and her two young nephews were killed after their truck was swept off the road into a gulley in the DR by a flash flood. I imagine more such stories will emerge in the coming days.
Fay has the potential to strengthen into a hurricane in the next couple of days as it approaches Cuba and crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting a Florida landfall for the Tampa/St. Pete area - but taking into account current trends, this could shift farther towards the FL panhandle in the coming days. Everyone in Florida west of Miami - and the entire Gulf Coast, including New Orleans - should be prepared for what could be a nasty start to the week.
Friday, August 15, 2008
My new bike
If you were in Bushwick, Brooklyn at about 5:30pm last night, you might have seen me riding around town with my brand new 1986 Trek road bike. It's a beauty.
Plan for tonight: laps around Prospect Park.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
NCAR cuts funding for climate impacts
Last week, the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO made a puzzling decision. It cut funding for the Center for Capacity Building - the primary vehicle with which research on weather and climate impacts are used to assist developing countries prepare for climate change and weather extremes. Over the last few years, I've gotten to know the director of the CCB, Mickey Glantz, pretty well and have the highest respect for what he has done to advance the interface between social science and meteorology. Not only is the loss of this center a severe setback for those countries who would benefit from Mickey's expertise - but it also calls into question the priorities of NCAR as an institution concerned about making the outputs of its scientists useful for the people who most need them.
I'm sure Mickey will continue to have a successful career - though unfortunately just not with the resources and support of NCAR.
Some related articles:
Climate Change program to aid poor nations is shut - New York Times
Dismay over cuts at climate program - Dot Earth
"You have to protect your core" - Prometheus
Abrupt termination of program raises fundamental questions - Climate Science Watch
NCAR - Center for Capacity Building home page
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Monday, August 11, 2008
Back in NY
Well, after what seems like a long week of travelling and resting, I'm back in New York now, commuting on the subway again and eating raisin bran and soy milk like nothing ever happened.
It's been a bit of a whirlwind few days, trying to get re-settled in, submitting aaaaall my receipts to get reimbursed, and hanging out with friends here in NY. I'll try to keep up with regular updates!
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Monday, August 4, 2008
Sunday, August 3, 2008
TS Edouard strengthening off the coast of LA
Just a heads up - a newly formed tropical storm is now just off the coast of Louisiana, headed west towards Texas. Signs are currently pointing towards rapid intensification, and a low-end hurricane may not be out of the question in 24-48 hours.
Be sure to keep an eye on the news, or the NHC, who will be the first to update with new information.
Saturday, August 2, 2008
Mwandama village
The visit yesterday to the village was very nice. The Malawi Met Service staff were very impressed with the multisectoral approach MVP is taking, and specifically when it comes to the multiple ways the project is already implementing some drought mitigation techniques. (Micro irrigation, rainwater harvesting, etc) The drought insurance will just add to the package.
It's exciting because Malawi has some history in being very progressive with drought insurance in the past few years - and this contract for Mwandama would be the first for MVP using a comprehensive approach to drought risk management. I'm excited to be a small part of it.
Below are some pictures around the village yesterday.
Adams (Agrometeorologist from MMS), Rebbie (Mwandama-MVP science coordinator/team leader), Gray (deputy director of MMS), and me in front of the MVP project offices in Zomba.
The MVP project offices building in Zomba
Downtown Zomba
A roadside market on the way to the village
Mwandama village
Chief Mwandama - he's where the village gets its name
A typical Malawian household
A typical house in the village
Cute kid!
Rebbie pointing out a borehole well constructed by the project for the Mwandama village
Gray testing out the water pump
Rainwater harvesting and storage tank - catching the rainfall off the roof of the house for domestic use and for watering the garden
A small check dam used to harvest runoff during the rainy season (it's dry now)
A larger microirrigation dam that was constructed on a pilot basis by a local community group of farmers, near a perennial stream
The irrigation trench - using low cost materials the farmers are able to divert a small amount of water from the local stream/pond to water this small plot of corn.
The cabbage garden - and tomatoes on the right
Adams and Gray speaking with a farmer from the community group responsible for the irrigated fields
The cabbage
Irrigated corn - the main staple crop of the village. Normally, it can only be grown in the rainy season - but microirrigation can produce a crop with similar yields in the dry season.
Some kids around our UNDP vehicle as we were leaving
Friday, August 1, 2008
Thursday, July 31, 2008
unexpected wisdom
i just met one of the guys who does maintenance work in our building yesterday. his name is randolph. randolph has at least 4 front top teeth that are covered in gold, is african-american, and wears baggy jeans. i, unfortunately, had labeled him as "different" for these things.
randolph and i just had a beautiful conversation, which went something like this:
me : (in reference to his washing our 13-ft. windows yesterday) you still washing windows today?
r: (as he looks up from his phone that he's holding in front of him & obviously texting) well, i'm just doing a little counselin' now, you know?
me: counseling?
r: yeah...my friend asked me do we hate to love or do we love to hate? i told her we hate to love b/c love hurts.
when there's pain, that's how you know it's love.
me: (in awe but trying not to get cheezy) yeah, i would agree with that...well when you see Mike, could you ask him if he could turn the air conditioner up? it's freezing in there today!
so, yeah. i got nothin.
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