One Thousand Strings

on my way home from ethiopia - a report

2010-01-25T06:23:00.001-05:00

just in case yall are waking up this morning and a bit confused - everything is fine here, my flight to addis is tomorrow morning, and my flight back to JFK (on KLM) is wednesday. i was planning on leaving early (today) but we had a little bit of delays with the field visits to the villages, and being the weekend the travel agent in new york wasn't at his desk to make the change to my itinerary.

the crashed ethiopian airlines plane was going to addis from lebanon - 90 people died. it happened this morning about 2am. when i told my colleagues about it here this morning they were pretty saddened - but somewhat removed, just as we would be when a plane crash happens in the US. tragic - but we're all ok here.

we got so much work done on this trip, and i think we're going to be in a good position to offer coverage for 5 crops, in 5 villages, in both rainy seasons this year (last year was 1 crop, in 1 village, in 1 rainy season). they're shooting for 700 households to be covered this year (last year was 200HH), and i'm sure we'll easily reach that goal, and probably break 1000HH. (there are about 5-6 ppl in one household on average). the insurance is designed to preferentially target the poorest farmers in the community - those with the least amount of fallback options during drought. in 2 of the 4 new villages, we discovered the poverty rate is greater than 60% (those living on less than $2/day) - so we're expecting at least 300HH to sign up from each of those two communities alone. the village last year (Adi Ha) has a poverty rate of "only" 40% - considered more or less a wealthy village in the region, because they have access to irrigation which helps them better cope with droughts.

starting with this trip, we're already brainstorming plans to expand to 50 villages next year (2011) - and potentially 10,000HH. still not HUGE numbers, but all the partners here (banks, insurance company, local aid agency, weather service, oxfam, and all the farmers groups we've talked to) are very excited about expanding as quickly as possible. (in case any reporters are reading this... PLEASE don't quote me on this! everything in this post is VERY tentative and nothing has been decided. all specifics are my personal opinion only. i already got in trouble from my boss once for blogging! =) ) for those of you not on facebook (mom/dad......... you're missing out!!) - oxfam's website is: http://oxfamamerica.org/ donations for haiti relief are now tax deductible for the 2009 tax year. (in case you were interested!)

also- the website for our project is http://www.oxfamamerica.org/regions/horn-of-africa - there are a couple of feature stories halfway down the page on specific farmers in adi ha with a cool audio slideshow that i contributed some pictures to. there's also a place to donate directly online (where funds are most needed) - or if you want to donate specifically to our project, there's an address to mail in a check (put HARITA in the memo line). HARITA stands for "Horn of Africa RIsk Transfer for climate Adaptation".

thanks so much for your love and support guys!
eric

Repost from UNICEF - Urgent help needed to help Haiti earthquake victims

2010-01-14T11:37:00.001-05:00

Dear Eric,

I'm sending the latest transmission we received from Haiti.

There is no good way to report the news. Thousands have died. Tens of thousands more – especially children – are at risk and may not survive without our immediate help.

Please give NOW – 100% of every dollar you give to the U.S. Fund for UNICEF will be sent directly to UNICEF to support emergency relief efforts.

The initial response to yesterday's appeal has already saved countless lives, but the need continues to overwhelm our available resources. The children of Haiti are relying entirely on international assistance to survive. The Haitian government has little to no means to respond to the crisis.

We are committed to doing whatever it takes to save these children. Please join us.

Thank you,

Caryl M. Stern
President & CEO
U.S. Fund for UNICEF

Team,

Latest intel is worse than expected. Needs severely outpace existing supplies. We do not have enough to keep the most vulnerable children alive. Desperately need more resources immediately. Please convey our dire need for help to all potential supporters. Children are dying.

Details on needs outlined below. More to follow.

-Richard

HAITI EARTHQUAKE – PRELIMINARY NEEDS ASSESSMENT AND UPDATE

Transmitted: 14 January 2010 06.35

* 3 million impacted. Casualties estimate high, over 100,000 dead. Tens of thousands more injured.
* Immediate needs [without more of the following, casualties will skyrocket, especially children]:
o Emergency medical supplies and temporary facilities
o Safe water
o Nutrition packets
o Temporary shelter systems
* Children separated from families exceed existing temporary shelters. Many are roaming in debris, injured, at risk of greater injury or death.
* Electricity not available. Widespread structural damage. Shanty towns leveled. Local government completely unequipped to aid those impacted.

10 things I am thankful for, 2009 edition

2009-11-24T12:20:00.000-05:00

1) Sarah, my best friend.
2) Emery Oliver
3) being able to buy fresh fruit and vegetables whenever I want
4) my job
5) ice cream and a big spoon after a long day
6) electricity and clean water on demand
7) LOST
8) a rodent-free apartment
9) vacations
10) love.

For Christmas this year... Build the Greensburg wind farm!

2009-11-13T21:08:00.004-05:00

I have only one thing on my Christmas list this year:

Offsetting all my flights for 2009... a big job!
(All that Catholic guilt is kicking in!)

Here's my company of choice for the offsets:
NativeEnergy is a revered offset program that develops renewable energy projects that benefit Native Americans, family farmers and municipalities. It's main project currently is supporting the construction of the new 12.5MW wind farm in Greensburg, KS. (Built by John Deere Renewables!)

As you might remember, the town of Greensburg was 95% destroyed by an F-5 tornado on May 4, 2007. Being from Kansas, the town holds a special place in my heart. (I even went to a Homecoming dance there once in High School!) The story of Greensburg has been immortalized by a series on the Discovery Channel, a mention in the State of the Union, and a Presidential commencement address at graduation that year...... vastly overshadowing the World's Largest Hand-Dug Well, it's previous claim to fame!

To offset my guilt (not to mention the CO2), I have calculated below all of my flight-miles for 2009. Before the year is over, I will have flown:

Kansas: 592 540 781 760
1108 1108
963 453 781 761
1020 393 781 761

Ethiopia: 3644 3552 3552 3664 313 313
6849 1563 313 313 1563 6849

Other:
1187 1187
2475 2475
2475 2475
761 596 596 761
1108 1363 2475

= 39 flights, (11532 mi short haul x .64 lbs/mi) + (23582 mi medium haul x .44) + (28090 mi long haul x .39)
= 14.36 tons of CO2

That's almost half as much CO2 as the average American emits from all sources in one year... JUST FROM FLIGHTS! Not good. But, I figure by living in New York (New Yorkers emit less than 1/3 as much CO2 as the average American), and keeping a vegetarian diet, I make up for a lot of that.

When you're making your Christmas list this year - consider giving a gift to the planet, too.

To offset now, go to:
http://www.nativeenergy.com/pages/offset_now/473.php

It might be the best Christmas gift you can give in the "Less is More" times we're living in now.

We made the NYTimes!

2009-09-30T10:18:00.006-04:00

The Adi Ha project in Ethiopia made the NYTimes this morning - following our Climate Week event in the city last week, held along with Oxfam, Swiss Re, and the Climate and Society masters program.

Africa Experiments With Climate Insurance -- for $5 a Year

Here's IRI's article on the same event.

It's a great day to be an IRI dreamer! Can't wait to see where this project goes!

Ethiopia Report launch, and exciting "other projects"

2009-08-31T12:28:00.004-04:00

Hi Everyone-

I'm so happy today to report that the IRI has officially launched a preliminary draft of our report on the Adi Ha, Ethiopia project, which, as you know, I worked on quite a bit.

We also have representatives at this week's World Climate Conference hosted by the WMO in Geneva, Switzerland - again talking about Ethiopia, and other IRI projects we have going on around the world.

My favorite "other project" is just at the scoping stage right now, but has already put forward some promising leads and I hope to talk about it and work a lot more on it in the future. This project is in partnership with the Red Cross, and would be helping Caribbean and Central American countries with enhancing preparedness for tropical cyclones.

Also, this fall I will be taking a microeconomics course at Columbia (my first time officially being a student in a while...) to brush up on some basic skills that I think will improve my understanding of the decision-making forces operating in the families we are trying to help.

No trips to the field planned right now in the near future, but you know how those things can pop up.

Hope you all are well! Happy fall!

Bill reaches Cat 4

2009-08-19T12:03:00.004-04:00

This morning, Hurricane Bill was upgraded to a Category 4 Hurricane - with sustained winds of 135mph. Bill is a beautiful storm and has yet to impact any land mass... the best kind of hurricane.

The models have been in agreement for sometime predicting a recurvature between Bermuda and the East Coast - but still have significant spread on just how that will occur.

However, it is getting more and more likely that some land will eventually feel the effects of Bill - and nearly guaranteed that there will be some serious wave action and beach erosion up and down the entire east coast late this week and weekend. Nova Scotia seems to be the ultimate landfall target at the moment, but landfall could be anywhere from Cape Cod, MA to Newfoundland. Bill will likely weaken by that point this weekend or early next week, but could still be anywhere from a Cat 1-Cat 3 at landfall. Bill's large size will ensure that rain, wave, surge, and wind effects are felt dozens to hundreds of miles from the official point of landfall.

The NOGAPS model in particular is the most westward of the models, and is predicting a landfall Sunday evening on Nantucket Island. Of course, this is only one model, and it's still 3-4 days out, so at this point if I were living in New England, I would just remain alert, and be prepared for evacuations, if necessary.

Stay safe out there everyone, and stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for the most up to date, official forecasts.

All eyes on Hurricane Bill

2009-08-17T17:33:00.005-04:00

New England/Atlantic Canada needs to stay VERY alert over the next few days...

With Ana (dissipated over PR/DR) and Claudette (inland after landfall in Florida) both on the outs, all attention has now been focused on recently upgraded Hurricane Bill - which could reach Major Hurricane status sometime tomorrow or Wednesday.

By this weekend, Bill could be bearing down on the New England coast, potentially as a Major Hurricane.

Barring anything too crazy (i.e. a Major, or forced evacuations), a chase-cation to Montauk may be in the works this weekend...

Ana, Bill, and Claudette

2009-08-16T13:45:00.003-04:00

Very quickly, we've gotten very active in the Atlantic.

Just in the last 24 hours, since my last post, we've seen Bill strengthen and overtake Ana as the dominant storm in the central Atlantic, and just this morning, Claudette has formed off the Florida panhandle - with landfall expected this afternoon.

But there is good news embedded in here. Ana has failed to strengthen as much as was forecast yesterday - and will likely weaken as it enters the Caribbean in the next couple days. Bill - though continuing to strengthen, likely to major hurricane status early next week - is trending rightward, meaning, it may miss the Caribbean/United States entirely. And Claudette - if given an extra 24 hours, would likely have become a landfalling hurricane.

Stay tuned everyone, and please stay prepared if you are in the path of any of these storms.

Finally, action in the Atlantic.

2009-08-15T13:01:00.005-04:00

Happy Atlantic Hurricane Season 2009, everyone!

While those that live on the southeast coast (and in the Caribbean/Central America) probably DON'T look forward to this time of year ever, it's always a kind of morbid curiosity for me. #1 as a humanitarian, #2 as a "WAS*ISsy" research scientist, #3 as a weather nerd. Although I freely admit that those 3 could be in any order at times... saving lives of course always comes first. It's my job, but also my passion.

This morning, tropical storm Ana (pronounced Ah-na), formed from the remnants of TD#2 in the Central Atlantic. The shear that has been cutting off convection for the last few days is finally on the downswing, and Ana is moving over warmer waters. Ana's forecast track places her somewhere between South Florida and south of Cuba/Haiti/DR in 5 days, strengthening in that time to around hurricane strength. Of course, everyone living in those areas needs to start taking precautions now.

We've had a lot of death and destruction lately (the last 5 years or so), but due to the onset of a weak El Nino, this year's Atlantic hurricane season forecast is officially calling for a calmer than normal season. HOWEVER -- (and that's a big however...) just one badly timed storm can make for a REALLY bad hurricane season for someone. I'm thinking here of the 1992 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which was officially below average, but included as its first named storm Hurricane Andrew which devastated South Florida - the worst US storm on record until Katrina in 2005. Sound familiar to this season so far??

Keep an eye on Ana everyone, especially those in the cone.

2009 ALDS: Royals vs Orioles, Game 5

2009-08-11T22:59:00.001-04:00

Mon Oct 12, 2009, 6:15pm: After a humbling 9-0 loss in a rainy Game 2 in KC, and then a 3-2 heartbreaker in the first game in Baltimore where the combination of Sheets-Martinez was not enough to eek one out, the Royals came back to collect 16 hits and win 8-1 on the back of Billingsley on Saturday night at Camden Yards, to force a decisive Game 5 back home tonight.

Starting tonight it will be Zack Greinke, the Royals All-Star, and Rich Hill, the Game 1 loser for the Orioles. Greinke hopes to have enough to lead KC on to the next round, after his unfortunate playoff debut in Game 2, where he was forced to leave the game in the 3rd inning after a long rain delay. Should Greinke and the Royals emerge victorious tonight, they would face the best-in-baseball Cleveland Indians in the ALCS, who clinched their Division Series win over the A's on Saturday.

Needless to say, fans here are tuned in and turned on for the sold out finale tonight at the K. Thousands of powder-blue "It's Our Time" t-shirts fill the stands tonight, which has become the Royals rallying cry since the pennant race started heating up more than a month ago.

7:40pm: Orioles are off to a quick 1-0 lead here in the second as Adam Jones takes Greinke deep.

8:55pm: Greinke has retired 7 straight here in the 7th... with 7 strikeouts. It must be his lucky night! The score is still tied 2-2, but there is a hopeful buzz in the crowd.

9:20pm: A leadoff single by Teahen and an error have 2 on with 1 out here in the bottom of the 8th. There's action in the Orioles bullpen. Here's the 3-2 from Hill to Crisp - struck him out swinging. A long 10-pitch at bat looks to chase the Orioles starter from the game, as the manager is making his slow walk out to the mound.

9:32pm: The righty Chris Ray comes on to face Callaspo. He'll bat from the left side. Here's the 1-1.... liner through the gap on the left side and it will roll all the way to the wall!...... 2 runs are in and the Royals go up 4-2!!

9:37pm: Alex Gordon to bat now. He's having a great series - the Royals missed him in September, but he came back from the DL just in time to make the start of this 5 game set, and has made a big impact so far against Baltimore. Royals fans are on their feet, looking for some insurance. Here's the pitch... it's a blooper, just over the head of the Orioles 1st baseman. Callaspo will score, and the Royals will take a 5-2 lead into the 9th inning!

9:55pm: Motte will come on to face the Orioles 4-5-6 hitters here in the 9th inning. Here's the pitch... and it's ball 4 to Adam Jones. A leadoff walk for Motte.

9:59pm: Motte against Wieters.... he struck him out! There was no catching up to that 95mph fastball.

10:03pm: Next up, Scott Moore, the Orioles third baseman, who is 0-3 today. The Royals fans are on their feet and urging Motte on. Here's the pitch... grounder to Aviles at short... it could be two! Two second for one, and Youkilis squeezes it at first and pumps his fist! The Royals are going to the ALCS!

Fireworks are popping, as the team rushes the field...jumping and dancing in the infield. A Division Series to remember here in KC!

There they are, your 2009 Division Series champions, the Kansas City Royals!

Player of the game: Alex Gordon, Series MVP: Alex Gordon (1HR, 6RBI, .368/.429/.632)

2009 ALDS: Royals vs Orioles, Game 1

2009-08-11T16:25:00.003-04:00

Tues Oct 6, 2009, 6:15pm: Today, the Royals are all anyone is talking about in Kansas City. That's because today, it's playoff baseball for the first time since 1985. Today, it's the Royals vs. the Orioles in Game 1 of the ALDS.

On the mound today, it's Chad Billingsley for the Royals and Rich Hill for the Orioles. A chill is in the air with early fall time temperatures in KC - 46 degrees at gametime - but the Royals hope to give the city something to celebrate later on tonight.

It's been a true team effort this year in KC - especially in the month of September, with 5 starters batting above .290 and a lot of clutch late inning RBIs as the Royals compensated for some ill-timed injuries to 3B Alex Gordon and SS Mike Aviles in the last weeks of the season. The Royals rotation also proved effective in September, with the 1-2 punch of Billingsley and Greinke going 9-0 as the Royals won 21 of their final 31 in Sept-Oct to finish atop the wild card standings in the American League.

The Royals emerged victorious from a 4 way pennant race with 3 powerhouse clubs from the AL East. The Royals, back to full strength now, will trying to finish off the other survivor - the Orioles - this week in the best of 5 series.

9:40pm: Despite giving up two early home runs accounting for all 3 of the Baltimore runs, the KC pitching staff has been quite stingy so far - allowing only 1 hit since Markakas' 2 run shot in the 3rd off Billingsley.

The Royals offense has done a bit better, collecting 7 hits - but the result is the same as we enter the 9th inning with the score tied 3-3.

9:55pm: A leadoff walk quickly becomes moot as Jason Motte finishes off the Orioles on 9 pitches in the top of the 9th.

10:10pm: It's the bottom of the 9th, and Alex Gordon has just struck out looking. Next up, Mike Aviles.

10:14pm: Aviles lines a shot down the third base line - but settles at 2nd. Corey Wimberly comes on to run and the fans are on their feet and screaming.

10:18pm: 1 on, 1 out - drama here in the bottom of the 9th. Up next is Miguel Olivo. The 2-2 count... crushed!! Out to left field and deep... and the Royals win it! A walk-off home run for Olivo, and the Royals fans are living it up! The first playoff victory in 24 years, here at the K... what a night!

Here's how that 9th inning played out:
Bottom of the 9th - Kansas City Royals batting - Pitching for Baltimore Orioles : LHP G. Sherrill
Now at 3B: M. Mora
Batting: LHB A. Gordon 0-0: Ball
1-0: Ball
2-0: Called Strike
2-1: Called Strike
2-2: Strikes out looking
Batting: RHB M. Aviles 0-0: Ball
1-0: Foul Ball, location: 2F
1-1: Ball
2-1: Ball
3-1: DOUBLE (Line Drive, 5L)
Pinch Runner at 2ndC. Wimberly:
Batting: RHB M. Olivo 0-0: Swinging Strike
0-1: Ball
1-1: Called Strike
1-2: Ball
2-2: 2-RUN HOME RUN (Flyball, 7D), Distance : 395 ft
Game Over ... Kansas City defeats Baltimore, 5 to 3

Pennant fever in Kansas City!

2009-08-09T12:56:00.004-04:00

***DISCLAIMER***
All of the events described below are fictitious. But they COULD be real. Someday.
OOTP is an ultra-realistic baseball simulator, that lets you control every aspect of your team, from free agent signings, sicking within a budget of a small-market city, to managing your team's on the field plays pitch by pitch, to keeping fans happy by not raising ticket prices too high, or trading away their favorite player.
Below is a recap of what IS POSSIBLE. In this case, with those lovable losers - the Kansas City Royals.

Just an FYI: I play all these games out, batter by batter. A full game takes about 15-20 min. But "the rest" of the simulator- negotiating trades, figuring out who to call up from the minors, setting ticket prices just right to balance attendance and cash flow... that's the fun part!
******************

You knew it was going to be something special when we were above .500 when three players in the All-Star game, two starting. Yes, your 2009 American League Wild Card Kansas City Royals are experiencing pennant fever for the first time since 1985.

Thanks to some well placed trades and a few risky offseason free agent signings, the boys in blue are back in the playoffs again for the first time since before a few of their players were born.

A quick recap of the season highlights thus far:
April 5: Signed free agent SP Pedro Martinez to a 1-year deal worth $1,000,000
April 6: Opening Day, Zack Greinke and the Royals lose 4-3 to the White Sox. Another long season looks to be in store for the boys in blue. Opening Day lineup: Crisp, Callaspo, Butler, Gordon, Jacobs, Guillen, DeJesus, Aviles, and Olivo.
April 10: The Royals beat the Yankees 9-7 to improve their record to 4-1.
April 15: In his second start, Pedro Martinez hits the DL with a shoulder strain - and is out for 4-5 months. He would return in August as a nearly unhittable middle reliever.
April 22: SP Zack Greinke sprains his shoulder in the 3rd inning, and goes to the 15-day DL. But the Royals beat Cliff Lee and the Cleveland Indians 9-6 anyway to cap a 5 game win streak.
April 29: Coco Crisp goes 1 for 4 with an RBI triple to extend his hitting streak to 20 games, and Willie Bloomquist hits a pinch-hit RBI double in the bottom of the ninth to lift the Royals to a 3-2 win over the Toronto Blue Jays.
April 30: The Royals finish April with a record of 13-9. A sign of hopeful things to come?
April 30: Hurting for starting pitching, the Royals trade 1B Billy Butler and CL Joakim Soria to the LA Dodgers, for SP Chad Billingsley. Billingsley goes 15-4 for the rest of the season, including a 6-0 record in September during the playoff push. Mike Jacobs becomes the starting 1st baseman, and promptly goes on a HR tear.
May 6: Coco Crisp goes 0-4 against the Seattle Mariners, ending his hitting streak at 25 games.
May 7: Zack Grienke tosses a 5 hit, 8 inning, 3-2 win against Seattle in his first game back from the DL.
May 16: Signed free agent SP Ben Sheets to a minor league deal - with the hopes he would return from the DL in August and be a late season asset.
June 4: To strengthen the bullpen in the wake of the Butler-Soria/Billingsley trade, the Royals acquire Cardinals closer Jason Motte for minor league prospects.
June 18: The Royals make a trade with the rebuilding Boston Red Sox for reliever Manny Delcarmen.
June 29: Mike Jacobs hits 3 HRs against Minnesota. The Royals lose anyway, 16-7, pushing their record to 36-39, 3rd place in the AL Central.
July 2: Zack Greinke strikes out 10 White Sox (his 4th 10+ K game of the year so far) - but loses 6-4, to bring his record to 3-9 on the year. It continues a theme of great performances, but low run support.
July 4: The Royals beat the last place White Sox 9-2, pushing their record back to .500, second place in the AL Central, and into 5th place in the AL Wild Card Race.
July 14: Alex Gordon and Mike Jacobs (leading the league in HR with 17 at the break) start for the American League, which loses the All-Star game 6-5 in St. Louis. Zack Grienke is selected, but doesn't play.
July 17: In the first game back from the break, John Buck singles home David DeJesus to beat Tampa 2-1 in 13 innings. Greinke pitches into the 8th, giving up only 1 run on an error. Jason Motte pitches 3+ innings of no-hit relief, and Manny Delcarmen closes out the 13th for the win. The Royals starting lineup: Crisp, Teahen, Gordon, Jacobs, Guillen, DeJesus, Callaspo, Aviles, Olivo.
July 23: The Royals trade Left Handed SP Greg Smith (acquired off waivers earlier in the season from the Colorado Rockies) to the Boston Red Sox for 1B Kevin Youkilis and his ginormous salary. Greinke needs more run support, and the Royals are above .500 past the All Star break. Fans welcome the decision with open arms.
July 26 (Emery's first Royals game!): Kyle Davies 1-hits Texas, striking out 6 and going a complete 9 innings in front of a sell-out crowd. The best Royals pitching performance of the year! The Royals improve their record to 51-46 and move into 4th place in the AL Wild Card race.
August 17: Luke Hochevar is thrown out of the game for hitting Paul Konerko with a pitch and igniting a bench-clearing brawl. The Royals lose the game 17-1. Their worst loss of the season. But the Royals go 9-4 for the rest of August.
August 18: Ben Sheets returns from the DL and gives up 5 HR in 4 1/3 innings - but the Royals beat the last place White Sox anyway, 16-9.
August 31: The Royals finish August 71-60 overall, and very much still in the playoff picture, 2nd place in the AL Central behind the ML-leading Cleveland Indians (86-46), and 4th place in the AL Wild Card Race behind Boston, Baltimore, and Toronto.
September 1: MLB expands active rosters to 40. The Royals call up a flock of bullpen help from AAA Omaha and sign two free agents: a backup catcher and a pinch runner to help for the playoff push. Royals beat Oakland 3-0 behind a complete game 3 hitter from Billingsley. The Royals starting lineup: Crisp, Callaspo, DeJesus, Gordon, Jacobs, Youkilis, Lubanski, Buck, Bloomquist.
September 4: Pinch Runner Corey Wimberly races home in the bottom of the 10th inning as the Royals win a thriller against the Angels at home, 6-5.
September 21: The Royals enter the second to last week of the season with a 4-game set at home against the Wild Card leading Red Sox. The Royals win the first game 7-6 with some clutch hitting in the bottom of the 7th, and a strong bullpen.
September 23: The Royals move into a tie for 2nd place in the wild card with Baltimore, 0.5 games behind Boston, after beat Boston 13-1.
September 25: The Royals take sole possession of the wild card lead for the first time all season as the Red Sox lose their 5th straight to the Yankees.
September 27: The Red Sox lose their 7th in a row, and eliminate themselves from playoff contention.
September 30: The Royals finish September with an 18-10 record, including a 4-game sweep of Boston and winning 2 out of 3 against the Yankees in the final week.
October 1: Off Day for the Royals. The Royals, Yankees, and Orioles enter the last 3 games of the season and finish the day in a 3-way tie for the AL wild card, with the Orioles and Yankees tied for the AL East lead. Chad Billingsley is named AL Pitcher of the Month for the 2nd time this season as he goes 6-0 with a 1.70 ERA in September. Tug Hulett is named AL Rookie of the Month, hitting .333 with 3HR and 21 RBIs.
October 2: Zack Greinke beats the Twins 4-1 in Minnesota, in a complete game, winning his 6th straight, but the Royals remain in a 3-way tie for the wild card lead, as the Yankees beat Tampa 5-3 and the Orioles beat Toronto 3-0.
October 3: Chad Billingsley (winning his 14th straight game!) and the Royals clinch no worse than a tie for the AL Wild Card when the Royals beat the Twins 14-1, and both the Yankees and Orioles lose.
October 4: Last day of the regular season, and all of Kansas City is scoreboard watching as the Royals maintain a slim 5-4 lead over the Twins in the 7th inning... A Royals win, or either an Orioles or Yankees loss would all send the Royals to the playoffs. The Royals score 6 in the top of the 7th, and you can feel the excitement all across town. The news becomes official in the bottom of the 8th inning of the Royals game... Tampa has just shut out the Yankees, 2-0! The Royals close out the 2009 Regular season by beating the Twins 11-5, and clinch the AL Wild Card!

All of Kansas City is abuzz as the playoffs start today. The Royals open the ALDS at home against the AL East champion Baltimore Orioles, led by Nick Markakis (.309/.378/.487) and Matt Wieters (.309/.387/.527). The starting pitchers for Game 1 will be Chad Billingsley (17-6, 3.00) for the Royals and Rich Hill (18-7, 3.59) for the Orioles.

More updates as they become available!

In the meantime, here are the 2009 season summary statistics, and how the Royals fit into the MLB leaderboards.

Watching my nephew - in the process of learning.

2009-08-09T12:21:00.004-04:00

Although I only get to spend a few days per year with my nephew Emery Oliver Atchison, those days are precious as I soak in the wonder that is a growing, learning, changing, loving baby boy.

Here are a few glimpses of me watching my nephew grow, from our last visit.

Emery's first Royals game!

2009-07-31T11:55:00.005-04:00

For Christmas last year, even before Emery Oliver Atchison was born, one gift destined him to his first Royals fan experience... tickets to his first game! (Although I think maybe his first outfit (a Royals onezie from eBay) from his dad may have sealed it a little sooner!)

So on July 26, 2009, his parents, his uncle, and all 4 of his grandparents made the trek up to the "New K" to sit in the brand new outfield fountain seats and christen Emery as a lifelong Royals fan.

To see more pictures of the rest of our vacation (to the Ozarks - including, Emery's first swim, Emery's first paddleboat, and Emery's first cave!) visit Emery's blog!

Emery and his uncle (me!)

Emery and his parents at the game.

Emery chillin in the outfield. It was so sunny out, we had to get that man some shades!

Panorama of the New K. Click pictures for larger version!

Bokern Bash 2009

2009-07-14T10:53:00.005-04:00

A stitched panorama of the Bokern Family - July 4th, 2009 - Kelly, KS.

One of my loves...

2009-06-28T13:49:00.003-04:00

Reading the NYT on Sundays...
And this blog, so beautifully done. Today's is about Monticello (Thomas Jefferson's house, immortalized on the back of the nickel).

Ethiopia/Insurance Audio Slideshow!

2009-06-24T10:10:00.004-04:00

The audio slideshow that I've been promoting here is finished! It will be officially launched today in Geneva, Switzerland at the Global Humanitarian Forum, and will be introduced by the former UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan. Also being launched today is our new publication on weather index insurance for development - PDF brief (with my photo!!) - which also has some of my photos and a case study I wrote on the Millennium Villages Project.

Take a look at the slideshow below, it runs about 5 minutes - it features several of my pictures from Ethiopia (mostly some closeups of the farmers, and the games from March)... and also some music from an Ethiopian CD I picked up along the way!

Look for my name in the end credits!

Update: the Earth Institute issued a press release!

Index insurance for development and disaster management from IRI Video Pages on Vimeo.

Launch Day in Adi Ha!!

2009-05-28T14:19:00.003-04:00

Tooday is Launch Day for Oxfam America's weather index microinsurance project in Adi Ha, Ethiopia! As you all know, I've been a technical advisor for this project during its development stages, and for me, this is a very exciting day.

Back home in my city.

2009-05-26T16:39:00.002-04:00

I've spent the last 48 hours getting some much needed R&R in and around Prospect Park, Park Slope, Crown Heights, and a nice little coffee shop near Grand Army Plaza. I haven't gone more than 1 mile since I landed Saturday afternoon. Many smiles and much good company. As it should be.

The result, I'm already completely over my jet lag, and I'm completely happy.

As Louis Armstrong said... "what a wonderful world"!

1st day of summer!

2009-05-22T13:02:00.001-04:00

So, I'm declaring today my own personal unofficial first day of summer.

Spending my last few birr on an internet cafe...to send official word
of the official agreement of the main parties to the official final
details of the adi ha drought insurance product to be launched next
week in the village i just visited... and an impromptu international
phone conference with my bosses back in the US... ending with them
telling me "job well done"... and my last 24 hours in ethiopia capped
off by some nice warm breezes and a beautiful sunset - all fills me
with a great sense of completion and accomplishment.

it's gonna be a great summer, and the time to celebrate starts now.

next stop, new york.

Wrapping up in Tigray

2009-05-20T11:40:00.001-04:00

I'm back in Mekele now, after a long and bumpy 5 days on the road here
in Tigray. By my guess, we (the translator/facilitator, driver, and
I) covered about 1000km (600mi) in 5 days, most on rock roads -
dodging chickens, cows, oxen, camels, children, old women, downed
trees, big rocks, muddy stream beds, and probably many other things
that I have pictures of but can't remember right now. It was a great
trip - I think we really got into the heart of the drought/development
problem with our focus group questions with farmers - but I don't
think my butt will ever be the same.

I have promised myself after I return (and have a more reliable
connection!) to do a regular series of posts on some of the
interesting moments, images, experiences, and places of the trip - so
keep checking back. Tomorrow I have the last meeting here in Mekele
(a training for the field staff of the MFI that will actually be
selling the drought insurance for this season's pilot project in Adi
Ha), and will then fly back to Addis on Friday for a meeting with the
director of the Ethiopian National Weather service, before my flight
back to New York on Saturday.

Salaam to all.

Quick break from field work...

2009-05-16T12:31:00.001-04:00

I'm copying this from an email I just sent to my favorite New Yorker... sorry for such little detail. More to come soon, I promise!!

I'm exhausted - we just got back from 2 days in the field - driving about 6hrs a day on bumpy rock roads, and waking up early. I got back about 3hrs ago and all I wanted to do was check my emails (and read what you had to say!) and take a shower. The power was out however, until about 20 min ago. So that means, no hot water, and of course, no internet. We're leaving again at 7:30am and will be gone until Tuesday night (Tuesday noon your time) but by that time I'll be coming home in just a few days. I have so many great pictures and stories to share with you... I can't wait.

I'm really excited about all our progress here. It's been so great the last 2 days especially --talking with farmers under trees, seeing the diversity of the land and the people, and even getting caught in the rain and having to run in someone's house (one of those circular ones made of stones with a pointed thatch roof...) A few chickens also ran in behind us... it was quite an experience.

downloading/potential

2009-05-13T04:57:00.001-04:00

I just had to take a picture of the computer screen just now - cause I
was so excited that the 3 short text files I've been trying to
download for the last hour and a half (satellite rainfall histories of
the 3 villages we're considering for next year) finally came through.
Marjorie laughed. I'll upload the photo when i get some more
bandwidth. =) Sorry i'm always talking about the internet here, but
it's what's immediately on my mind when I'm typing out these posts.

I made myself feel a little bit better about the money I'm spending on
internet in such a poor country this morning (let alone carrying
around a $600 camera on my neck) - a mother was sitting on the curb
with two babies (one maybe 2yrs old), and she held out her hand to me.
I gave her 10 Birr - the same price as my ice cream at lunch
yesterday - about a day's wage.

Such a drop in the bucket in a country with so much need, but maybe it
helped her for just one day.

just when you think you got it...

2009-05-12T12:38:00.001-04:00

the power goes out. such is the life of a crowded corner shop with 8 people sharing one dialup connection.

but anyway, POTENTIALLY, we chose at least 2 of the new villages for our scale up plans in 2010 today... and I'll hopefully be going to visit them this weekend!

it's another warm, wonderful night. after an all-day round of meetings (and 25 hrs and counting awake!), Marjorie, Mengesha (our local lead partner) and I decided to explore a new part of Mekele (new, meaning Marjorie and I had never been over this way before), with the intent of finding Marjorie a nice colorful Ethiopian umbrella. No luck, but we did find this internet shop that is the pure definition of chaos. No sheep or goats this time though.

(and also, in my previous post - I meant 10 Birr, not 100 Birr. Big difference. And I apologize if I did actually write 10 Birr.)

Love you all.

Happiness.

2009-05-12T07:15:00.002-04:00

Vetiver and Papaya Melaba. 10 Birr at the Axum Hotel. Do the math... it's a good deal. =)

Ethiopia tonight...

2009-05-11T19:11:00.001-04:00

It's a warm, clear night. There are a million stars out.

We had a lot of progress today. One of our main discussions right now in finalizing the drought insurance agreement for this year with the farmers is a necessity that we use satellite rainfall estimates because the rain gauge we installed in the village has not been in place long enough to get an accurate sense of local rainfall patterns. So, yesterday (before I arrived), Marjorie made a trip out to the village to discuss this with the farmers.

I wish I could attach her powerpoint (they all gathered around her laptop to watch) - it was amazing.

Using only pictures (and the help of a local translator from the village) b/c most of the farmers in Adi Ha can't read, Marjorie explained the concept of satellites by showing a picture of the Earth and the Moon (which some farmers had never seen, but most had) - and then showing a picture of a communications satellite in orbit - complete with solar panels, beaming TV and cell phone signals down to a picture of Africa. According to her report, there was a lot of enthusiasm at this concept - especially as Marjorie zoomed in on a Google Earth image all the way down to the tree nursery in their village. "Can we buy our own satellite?", one farmer asked. "We would like to monitor our tree nursery... I have a problem with people stealing fruit from my trees!"

Other thoughts as I get ready for sleep (finally)...

I'm always thankful for perspective-altering experiences.

Not sure how I got on this sleeping schedule. Somehow i'm 12 hours ahead of New York, and 5 hours ahead of Ethiopia. My body doesn't know where it is.

The best selling brand of bottled water in Ethiopia is called "Life" Spring Water. Do you think people here know how important water is?

- Sounds of Ethiopia - from my last trip here, in March.

Oh, one more thing...

2009-05-11T05:45:00.001-04:00

To top it off, an Ethiopian priest in traditional dress just came in (think, my pictures of the churches from the last trip), asked for each of us to come up to him one by one.... to get splashed in the face with a handful of holy water! I think he was going door to door with his little silver bucket, doing his good deeds for the day. My face and shirt are still soaking.

Wow! =)

Back in Ethiopia.

2009-05-11T05:22:00.001-04:00

Made it safely back to Mekele, Ethiopia, with a pocketful of Birr (willingly exchanged for dollars at the going rate from my colleague back in New York before I left) and a brand new 2 year business visa... It was so nice not to wait in any lines at all at the airport. Although there were some signs posted around the airport with the title "Save our country from the Swine Flu!!", I didn't have to fill out any more paperwork, because my flight was not direct from JFK - due to the stopover in Dubai. Although I did write JFK on my immigration card, no one asked me about it. Hopefully my "legacy" in Ethiopia will not be as the person who brought them Swine Flu.

Right now, I'm sitting in the best internet cafe in town, which actually has been upgraded since my last visit 2 months ago. Still dialup, but it seems to be a much faster version somehow. In the hour since I've been here, a couple of guys have ridden past on a wooden cart drawn by a team of donkeys, a very old Tigrinyan woman came in to exchange her handful of coins she earned begging, and a sheep nosed its way in the door, only to be scolded fiercely by its master. Still, I found time to check my fantasy baseball team, and update my facebook status.

There's a lot to learn and a lot to do, but the more time I spend here in Ethiopia, the more I realize that it might be me that's going to end up doing most of the learning.

Photos from Dubai

2009-05-09T17:53:00.003-04:00

my plane, the Emirates A380 - the largest commercial airliner in the world

it needs 3 boarding ramps! boarding took 45 min. i just sat and ate my burrito. (thanks sarah =)

the stairway to the 2nd deck (1st class seats). basically, a cruise ship in the sky... and, i don't want to think about my now super huger carbon footprint.

all the seats had a HD widescreen, cup holder, and 3 prong plug for laptops. and this was in economy class.

the stars came out during the night =)

flying over the iraq/iran border area

the compass that always pointed towards mecca

my swine flu paperwork that i had to fill out!! they also did thermal scans of each of us as we got off the plane to see if we had a fever.

the thermal scanner, and the thermal scanner guy.

dubai airport lounge

mcdonalds, the start of my taxi tour of dubai (my driver: "i eat sometimes at mcdonalds when i'm hungry and don't know where to eat") me too, Amin, me too.

Ace Hardware!!

road sign to Abu Dhabi (on the left) and the man-made palm island (on the right)

entering the palm island

one of the condo buildings on the palm island

Atlantis hotel, on the palm island

tunnel to the Atlantis hotel, with a drawing of the palm island

the persian gulf, and the rocky beach - across from the atlantis hotel

the moon and "media city" - a part of dubai with lots of skyscrapers.

making a u-turn

a floodlit sign asking people to reduce their carbon footprint... i guess they don't see the irony there...

an inlet to the gulf, and a few more skyscrapers - in the dubai marina. Amin and I walked around here for a bit, to feel the warm breeze.

more of the inlet.

amin getting back into the cab

street sign for dubai/abu dhabi

the burj al arabi - the most famous landmark of dubai. it's a SUPER exclusive, all suite hotel. fitting symbol.

another of the hotel arabi

Amin posing in front of his cab outside the Arabi hotel

ski dubai - the indoor ski slope

burj dubai - 818m tall, the tallest building in the world. (on the right)

burj dubai, with the new monorail tracks in the foreground. the burj is supposed to be finished later this year, and the monorail, soon after.

burj dubai with the moon

the grocery near my hotel. i bought some cashews.

inside the grocery

the palms along the road near my hotel

my restaurant tonight, the arab udapi - near "Osama Computers" - proud sellers of hewlett packard.

my dinner, fresh juice, aloo gobi, and cheese naan.

recycling bins on the street.

an ad for the red crescent (islamic relief charity - like the red cross)

my room. the arrow on the ceiling points towards mecca.

Live from Dubai, one night only...

2009-05-09T15:43:00.003-04:00

Hello from hot and sandy Dubai, where (according to the pilot) it was 98F at 7pm when we landed tonight. I'm here on an overnight layover, the first leg of which was on the new Airbus 380 on Emirates. It was a fun ride. 12 hours, and I slept almost the entire way (no joke). While the staff was at best neutral on the issue of caring for all the passengers throughout the trip (all meaning all 500+ of us on both decks - it took 45 min just to board - again, no joke), the plane itself really could be called business class throughout the main deck (where I sat - waaaay back in row 78), and super duper luxury upstairs (seats folding flat, etc). There was a laptop plug at each of our seats, a wide screen with countless entertainment choices on the seat back, and more leg room than even first class on most US-carriers. No free wireless internet, but I guess you can't have everything... Oh, and it was also the cheapest option (by far) for my route. My favorite part was that little twinkling stars appeared on the ceiling of the cabin when they turned out the lights for us, and bird chirping noises played when they turned the lights back up before breakfast! Oh, and they also had a few live cameras on the outside of the plane, so you could watch what the pilot sees as he steered us along our journey. It was nighttime for most of the trip, but watching clouds go by just makes my heart happy.

As a catchup to those who may not know (since I haven't written much since my last trip!), I'm heading back to Ethiopia for another 2 week support trip for Oxfam, working on a drought insurance project with farmers in rural Tigray province, in the north of Ethiopia. Ethiopia has much more of a Middle East feel to it than the rest of Africa, so perhaps it's fitting that I started my trip off in the Middle East this time.

Dubai is not your father's (or even, older brother's) Middle East. It's super modern, and super Westernized. (This, of course, judging mostly by my 2 hour cab tour with Amin, my new friend.) Amin's family moved here from Egypt many years ago, and raised him here - but have recently moved back to Cairo in search of jobs. Amin is planning on following them in a few months, inshallah, to look for a job himself. Meanwhile, I think he enjoyed wandering around town with me tonight. I figured a personalized tour from an airport cab driver would be a good way to spend my only night here - and also an interesting look into the life and perceptions of an average modern Gulf resident. It was interesting. We ended up driving past a lot of new hotels, shopping centers, and "showrooms" - Amin's word for anything from luxury car dealerships to a new Zara that just opened near the beach. ("Good quality clothes, from Spain, I think. I would like to visit Madrid, Barcelona too someday, inshallah) Most of Dubai (at least the super ritzy parts) have been built in the last 10 years. Amin said construction has slowed around here lately - but it didn't stop him from taking me to all the newest places in town.

So, in under two hours, we got to see lots of tall buildings (mostly hotels, but also media companies and office buildings - surreally branded mostly with American names - Microsoft, Schlumberger, GE, etc), rows and rows of brand new shopping malls ("all new, only 4 or 5 months old") , and the Persian Gulf. It was a warm, lovely night... everyone was out walking around. We went mostly to the tourist areas - first to the Palm Jumierah (the Palm shaped man-made island) and the Atlantis Hotel ("where you can see many fishes, like an aquarium"), past the Mall of the Emirates - which houses Ski Dubai (the indoor ski slope), down Jumeirah Road - a palm lined boulevard that overlooks the Gulf - to Burj Al Arab - a hotel so fancy that there are armed guards at the gate. We couldn't get in. After the first 30 min or so, Amin and I loosened up a bit - broke out of the cab driver/drivee mode and into more of a casual conversation. At a couple of places he stopped the car to get out with me and walk around. The last place, he was even the one to suggest we stop for a bit. It was a beautiful night - I can see why people like it here. From afar, people think mostly of sand and oil - but there is really a richness here that of course I can't even begin to taste in only 2 hours. There is of course a lot of extravagance... our final stop on the way back to my hotel was a drive past Burj Dubai - the tallest building in the world. Now, rumor has it that it was supposed to be even taller, but the builder decided to top out early, to save some money, it being a recession and all. So for now, 818 meters will have to do... (almost twice as tall as the Sears Tower). I'm probably not alone when I wonder what will happen to a place like Dubai over the next 10-20 years or so as the world finally starts to come to grips with the vast divide between sustainability and business as usual...

Now, I'm here at the Palm Beach hotel, which is surrounded by neither palms, nor a beach... but many other cheap hotels (compared to Jumierah at least), restaurants, banks, and computer stores. My room has a little arrow on the ceiling, pointing toward Mecca. The hotel also has a Sri Lankan nightclub, and a couple other restaurants and bars... apparently (according to my friend who used to live here), hotels are the only places that are allowed to serve alcohol. But, I decided to walk down the street for dinner, to a place called Arab Udupi - thinking I would get some authentic Arabic cuisine (not really even knowing what that would be) - but it ended up being a pretty decent Indian place, which some Chinese influence. Globalization is here in Dubai, too.

Tomorrow, (later today?) I'll be getting up super early, and making the trek back across the Arabian Peninsula to Ethiopia. The place it all began.

One more day in Kansas

2009-03-28T16:44:00.004-04:00

The great spring blizzard of 2009 is almost over!

What I think happened was that the storm intensified so much that the models weren't able to handle its progression out of the area properly. NWS in KC noted that some of the energetics of the storm were 5 standard deviations above normal. Pretty crazy. So the storm ended up pulling up more warm air and more moisture from the south than were expected. So lots more ice than snow for the places that were supposed to get snow (I-35 corridor) and the snow shifted more north. Manhattan (8 inches) to Hutchinson (18 inches) to Pratt (28 inches) was the big snow bullseye for this storm. But, 6 inches of snow on top of 3 inches of sleet/ice in West Wichita, power lines down in Osage County, and snow and ice shutting down KCI were more than enough to impact my weekend.

SO... one more day in Kansas for me. =)

Snow total maps over the last 2 days:

CO/KS/OK Blizzard update

2009-03-26T16:38:00.003-04:00

Things are really starting to get crazy out there. Lots of spots along the Colorado front range are already experiencing full blizzard conditions - 12-15" of snow with 30-40mph winds over the last 12 hrs or so... Longmont, Boulder, Monument are all reporting drifts of snow of 3 feet or more.

Tomorrow, I'm betting I-70 will be closed, and the Wichita area, and other parts of south central Kansas and NW Oklahoma are expecting what may be the most snow in history for the area. (this after already getting the biggest rainstorm in history last year!)

Here's what Wichita NWS has to say:

THE BULK OF THE HEAVY WET SNOW AND WIND LOOK TO AFFECT MUCH
OF THE AREA FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE
INTENSE CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC AND DYNAMIC LIFT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WELL DEVELOPED TROWAL AND SOME
FRONTOGENETIC BANDING LOOK TO TRANSITION EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...CENTERED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR. THEREFORE HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS
IN THE GENERAL AREA...WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH
RANGE. WILL LIKELY REALIZE THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE IN
AREAS OF CONVECTION/THUNDERSNOW WHICH IS EXPECTED AS WELL.
THE HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE
TO THE LATE SEASON NATURE OF THIS EVENT...WITH SOME TREES
IN BLOOM AND WET NATURE OF THE HEAVY SNOW...HAVE DECIDED
TO GO WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE TURNPIKE INTO SATURDAY...WITH A LATER ONSET
GIVING TIME FOR ASSESSMENT OF ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO
BEFORE ISSUING ANY WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES. THAT SAID...THE
MODELS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY SNOW AFFECTING AT LEAST
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

So I have some choices to make, as I have to make it back to KC for a 4pm flight on Saturday... either hang out in Wichita with Jenn and Pat and Emery on Friday and wait for the storm to break, or head up now and at least spend the evening with them, before getting out Friday morning. I dunno... riding out Emery's first thundersnowstorm might be pretty fun! Tough call...

UPDATE: NWS Wichita just changed Wichita metro area from a Winter Storm Watch to a Blizzard Warning... yikes!

Blizzards and Strawberries

2009-03-26T00:15:00.005-04:00

I'm in Norman reconnecting with the wonderful weather/climate community here. It's one of those things that I never realize how much I miss until I come back and I'm "in it" again for awhile... there are some really great people here with even greater people arriving every day. Yeah for progressive weather/climate folks!

When I found out last year I'd be going to a weather conference in Oklahoma this spring I was excited to experience some good ol' spring thunderstorms/severe weather. It looks like I'll be witnessing some historic weather in Oklahoma/Kansas after all this week... just didn't expect it to be winter weather!!

From the National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma...

WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES THIS EVENING TO THE WINTER STORM
WATCH. 00Z NAM IS JUST ARRIVING. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS POTENTIAL
TO BE A PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT AND DISRUPTIVE HEAVY SNOW EVENT
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON. NAM
AND GFS HAVE BEEN STICKING TO THEIR GUNS WITH RUN-TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN THE RANGE OF 20+ INCHES IN PARTS OF NW OK AND ADJACENT KS/TX -
WHICH IS HARD TO BELIEVE AT ANY TIME OF THE YEAR MUCH LESS THE
FIRST WEEK OF SPRING. 00Z NAM HAS DOUBLE-DIGIT TOTALS INTO EXTREME
NW OK BY MID-EVENING FRIDAY... 15-20 INCHES INTO HARPER COUNTY BY
09Z SAT... AND AGAIN DUMPS AN EXTRAORDINARY 30+ INCHES IN SW KS.
THIS RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY IS LEADING TO
INCREASING CONCERN THAT THIS SNOW EVENT WILL BE ONE FOR THE
AGES... AND THAT WE NEED TO RAMP IT UP FURTHER WITH WHAT AMOUNTS
TO A "PDS" WINTER STORM WATCH. UPDATED WSW WILL TREND THAT WAY
AND SHOULD BE OUT BY 10 PM. STRONG WINDS AND RELATED BLOWING/DRIFTING
EASILY COULD MAKE THIS ONE OF THE MOST CRIPPLING S-PLAINS
SNOWSTORMS IN RECENT HISTORY... ALTHOUGH CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT WIND SPEEDS ARE UNLIKELY TO ATTAIN BLIZZARD CRITERIA. ALL
USERS ARE URGED TO TAKE THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION SERIOUSLY AND
PREPARE AS WELL AS POSSIBLE FOR WHAT MAY END UP BEING ESSENTIALLY
AN UNPRECEDENTED LATE-SEASON HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN NW OK.

Wow, now that's a discussion. Reminds me of the Slidell WFO right before Katrina. (which is now the gold standard for justified extreme event hyping). Let's hope everyone can ride out this storm safely, and just enjoy it with some hot cocoa!

and... from Kansas City...

OTHER MAJOR CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY LOWS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS MONTH
AVERAGING SOME 3F TO 6F ABOVE AVERAGE...SPRING VEGETATION HAS
SPROUTED EARLY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER WHERE GROWING DEGREE DAY ACCUMULATIONS HAVE EXCEEDED
100F TO 120F. MOST VULNERABLE APPEAR TO BE STRAWBERRY BLOOMS AND
PERENNIAL FLOWERS...AS WELL EARLY PEACH BLOOMS...BOTH OF WHICH WOULD
BE DAMAGED BY TEMPERATURES AOB 28F (OTHER DECORATIVE BLOOMING TREES
WOULD ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE...THOUGH LITTLE IN PREVENTATIVE MEASURES
WOULD REALISTIC). FORECAST LOWS ARE FORECAST RIGHT NEAR THIS
THRESHOLD...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE STATEMENTS IN FUTURE FORECASTS. AN
INTERESTING SIDELIGHT HERE IS THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF SNOW
COVER...WHICH WHILE ALLOWING AIR TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE THAN
WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED...WOULD ALSO CONVERSELY INSULATE AND
PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION. IN WHICH CASE...GROUND BASED
VEGETATION WOULD BE SAFE...WHILE TREE BLOOMS WOULD STILL BE DAMAGED.

Societal impacts for strawberry farmers!! In a NWS forecast discussion! Whoa.

My day - a spring equinox to remember.

2009-03-20T23:25:00.008-04:00

Like my good work friend said... today was magical. It was one of those days that you just know are special. Of course we work for a climate organization - so the weather today had a lot to do with it. =)

In New York, for the last couple of weeks we've been battling the last bits of winter. Two days ago it was in the 30s... but yesterday was beautiful. To my surprise (and delight!) this morning I opened my front door and literally said out loud - "holy s***!" HUGE snowflakes were falling. It was so beautiful. I think it might have been a little like the snow in New Orleans earlier this year. Little kids were running around catching the huge flakes on their tounges, and everyone was smiling. It was like winter wanted to give us one last goodbye surprise. By the time I got to work, there was about 2 inches on the ground, and snow in the trees and everything. About 3 hours later after some morning meetings, it was all gone again - and by the middle of the afternoon it was back to the upper 50s. The sun was shining and the birds were singing again. So, to celebrate, I went home after work and rode a couple of laps around the park. What a beautiful present from mother nature on the first day of spring.

Below are some pictures from my day. (The pictures are way blurry...I think I need a different camera phone!)

*****************************************************************

snow outside my apartment this morning

NYC Dept of Education sends notices to parents in 7 languages - Spanish, Arabic, Hindi, Chinese, Russian, Korean, and Urdu

the end of my commute

snow on the main campus this morning

snow at lamont

3 hrs later - spring!

the way home - on the F train (graffiti etching says "unite ONE")

my walk home

bike ride!

i got concert tickets in the mail today too!

and, a reminder of the good ol' usa - endless cleaning products.

(Not shown - capping off the evening with a nice cold beer and college basketball!)

I'm home!

2009-03-11T14:54:00.002-04:00

After 18hrs of flights... I'm home safe and happy. It's a beautiful blue world. Over the last day, I saw endless desert in Egypt, lights from islands in Greece, the Alps over central Europe, a windfarm off the coast of the Netherlands, icebergs in the North Atlantic, and the Empire State Building back home in NY. The world is so big, and... beautiful.
Now, rest, and then back to work.

on my way home!

2009-03-10T09:04:00.001-04:00

just wrapped up our last meeting with marjorie proudly announcing "we have a pilot!" - everyone has agreed to go forward for this year.

now, i have a date with a cold beer, and then a plane to catch!

a love story...

2009-03-09T09:56:00.001-04:00

transplanted from an email sent today to a friend back home:

while you might still be sleeping (i hope), i have been on about 5 taxi rides already through the city... and at almost every stoplight, there were a couple of little kids that came up and wanted some money. kids that may or may not be in school (obviously they weren't at that moment), that may or may not have been sent by their parents to beg on the street (have you seen slumdog?), and may or may not get hit by a car in the process (ethiopia has the highest rate of motor vehicle related fatalities in the world - 90% of those that die are pedestrians). it was hard. it's the hardest part of coming to places like this. life is hard sometimes, even though so many things are so beautiful. there is so much hope here, yet so so many things that are still so wrong. i think you would do well in a place like this. you are so honest and genuine, and even though some things here are shocking, it's still the world, and it's still deserving of love. the kids here would love you so much, but i think you'd love them even more. the world needs more people like you... idealistic, but not yet jaded. i think it was too easy for me to just keep moving on in the taxi, sitting there in my suit with my important business meetings to go to... and that bothers me. the world needs people like you that can cry at the brokenness of things, but then stand up the next minute and take action. people that aren't afraid to give money to street kids - even though it may keep them out of school - because at the same time they're also working behind the scenes at making the schools better, so the kids have something to go to in the first place. someone that isnt afraid to love the world for what it is, broken, but beautiful.

Wrapping up

2009-03-09T08:15:00.001-04:00

We've had a number of good wrap-up meetings today, and interest is still strong. We have also been invited to return to Addis in May to present to the association of Ethiopian microfinance institutions in hopes of jump starting the scale up of this model across the country... and also met with a representative that will be taking part in the climate change negotiations this December in Copenhagen (aimed to develop a follow-on treaty to the Kyoto Protocol) - that will be lobbying for up to a $10B/yr fund to be spent on risk transfer/risk reduction for climate change adaptation in developing countries. He said that in his view, our project is the best one in the world right now for how to do that, using weather index insurance in a holistic way - and if we're successful during the pilot phase this summer in Tigray, that he would push to have our model replicated across the world as an example of best practice. Exciting stuff!

So now, our only remaining task is the high level roundtable tomorrow with the insurance company CEO, a representative from the national bank of Ethiopia, and a few other big wigs - to get their final buy-in for this year and start the visioning process for next year. Marjorie wants me to get a massage and relax... but there's still a lot of work to do! Only 32 hours till my flight!

More pictures of churches in Tigray

2009-03-08T09:48:00.004-04:00

Just got back to Addis this morning, so I'm able to have a little more bandwidth to send some more pictures of my walk through Tigray yesterday looking at some of the old churches there. It was a beautiful day. Some might call Tigray desolate and lifeless (some may say the same about Kansas who have only driven through!), but I strongly disagree. It is in these rural, isolated places that people learn to make due with what they have (in the case of Tigray, just barely) and build strong communities in the process.

Of my 14 day trip, only 2 remain. The next two days will be high level meetings in Addis with the major stakeholders of the project. All signs are pointing towards a very successful set of talks, we've done the groundwork locally and regionally to make these next days hopefully easy. But they still need to be done - these are the make or break people. I'm excited about all the personal infrastructure we've put in place on this trip - people are informed and talking to each other without our help, and everyone is sharing really good ideas. What I'm most excited about is that this is truly a project where the local local people, the poorest farmers in already a poor place, are having input in designing the solutions to their own poverty. And I can tell you, as part of the design team, their ideas are forming the basis for the project. Now we just need the head bosses to say yes, and it will happen.

I'm also looking forward to getting home. Even though it's been a great trip, I'm at the stage where I can see the end of the tunnel, and its getting closer. I'm looking forward to building some community of my own when I get back - both in Kansas for Emery's baptism this weekend, and back home in New York, where I have a lot of smiles waiting for me. =)

*******************

Ethiopian TV, at 1am. (After our big meeting Friday night!) Our 4 channels were, Ethiopian TV (ETV), Fox Movies (I watched Back to the Future III), BBC World News, and BBC sports (I also watched part of Manchester vs. Liverpool).

Start of the drive up into the highlands from Mekele.

The main road from Wukuro to Howzen.

A beautiful tree-tunnel!

Another tree-tunnel on the steps up to the first church, Abraha Atsbeha.

The outside of the first church. You can see how they literally carved the mountain away to make the church. Lonely Planet says the church was built in the 10th century. (over 1000 yrs ago) Just to be clear, all of these churches were carved, by hand, from a single piece of rock (usually out of the side of a mountain). Google/Wikipedia for more info.

This was an amazingly lucky moment. I arrived to the front steps of the church just as the traditional morning service was ending (all the churches that are still operating are Ethiopian Orthodox...) The priest's vestments were just beautiful. This is the best picture I got of the priest - but it doesn't show too well the vividness of the colors, red, green, and gold. Imagine stepping into a 1000 yr old church for the first time seeing this scene - with chanting and incense and a dozen or two really old, really devout rural Ethiopian men and women (a woman is kneeling in the background) not knowing whether to look at this new foreigner or pay attention to the service! It was pretty amazing.

A detail of the wall paintings inside the church. I don't know how old they are, but it's absolutely amazing they look the way they do. So beautifully detailed and vivid and inspiring.

Some of the old men that hung around to watch me after the service. (You can see more of the wall in the background)

The interior of the church. This was the nicest, most well-kept church I visited. Probably one of the most actively used rock-hewn churches in Tigray. You can see the pillars are carved into the shape of crosses (the church itself is also in the shape of a cross), and also you can see some of the drums in the back on the left.

The priest locking up the church after I left. I think he was waiting on me - and I took my time!!

The priest with his cross (that he lets people kiss), and the keys around his neck. He actually wanted me to take this picture, so he could see himself on the screen in the back of my camera. He thought it was pretty funny.

The second church - Debre Tsion Abraham..... waaaaaay on the top of that mountain. It took about an hour to climb up, with 6 little boys trailing me the whole time as "guides".

The way up. In addition to lots of cool sandstone formations, we saw 2 monkeys, a bunch of cool birds, and a small lizard, which the boys tried to kill by throwing rocks at it. It got away.

One of the boys (with his Air Jordan tshirt) stopped for a picture (and to see the back of the camera) near the top.

Some markings in the ground along the path pointing the way to the church. Not sure how old these are, but the sandstone is pretty soft so probably only a few years/decades at most. Especially since tourists have just started coming to these churches in the last 50 years.

The view from the top. This building is the monk's workshop.

The monk - who let us in and walked us around. The priest was gone to market, since it was Saturday (market day).

The front of the church.

The monk opening the door.

Inside/ceilings... some of this is carved/some painted. I think the stone was covered with plaster for the paintings at some point, because some of the paintings were chipping away.

One of the boys talking to the monk... it was really cute. The monk was very hard of hearing, so the boy kept having to repeat himself louder and louder. It could have happened in any language, anywhere in the world!

Detail of one of the paintings.

This church was kind of two churches in one. It had an inner and outer wall. This is between the walls. The boys said that this is where the women would be during a service (they weren't allowed inside the main part).

An engraving of St. Michael... I had to crawl through a really small tunnel/hole to get to this room (the boys showed me) and use a flashlight to see cause it was so dark. The light you see is from my flashlight (which one of the boys was using).

One of the boys paying the monk for me (by this time, a second monk had arrived), and the monk giving me a blessing. His hand was on my shoulder.

Self-timer of me and the "guides". They were really cute. I quizzed them on world capitals on the walk down. They were pretty good.

A couple of boys on the walk down. (Just before they saw the lizard)

The market in town, as we passed through to the 3rd church.

A troop of Gelada baboons crossing the road....! they are found only in Ethiopia. There were at least 50 of them... and about 12 big males.

Kitty sleeping on the steps of the 3rd church. Not an endemic baboon, but probably cuter.

The third church - Chirkos, in Wukuro town.

The monk opening the door. He was a pretty young monk, maybe 40 or so. We connected. He showed me his bible made of animal skins, and then I showed him the pictures (on the screen on my camera). He was smiling a lot.

Inside of the church - you can see the beautiful sandstone swirls in the pillar.

This church had a lot more detailed carvings than the other ones.

The monk with the bible - hand written on animal skin paper.

The outside of the church. You can kind of see how it was carved.

Some of the tinkling metal chimes on the guard house of the church.

Neat little shop on the way back to Mekele.

The rock-hewn churches of Tigray

2009-03-07T09:00:00.000-05:00

Just a couple of pictures due to really slow internet... but I spent today - my only touristy day of the trip - exploring some 800 yr old churches (a couple are more like caves!) carved out of the mountains here in Tigray. There were even more cute kid encounters, and a lot of magical experiences. As I told my snow-woman (is that a word?), it was a little like going cave exploring, but on the top of a mountain, with centuries old art inside, in a remote part of Africa that was only really "discovered" about 50 years ago. Definitely one of the most inspiring, adventurous things I have ever done.

Last meeting! and more from Adi Ha

2009-03-06T15:34:00.001-05:00

Today was our biggest meeting of the trip... and it went really well.
We have buy-in from all the major partners, and a vision for how to
get a transaction completed to have drought insurance for the farmers
in Adi Ha by this year's rainy season, which begins in June. It was a
great feeling.

Attached are some more pictures of Adi Ha.... 1) the late night farmer
meeting under the tree, 2) the stars in adi ha (you can see orion), 3)
some camels walking by, 4) meeting with the village chief to discuss
the index insurance project structure, 5) the chief, 6) doing some
marketing analysis with farmers about the logo (it's a picture of hand
holding grain... you can see one of the farmers demonstrating), 7) the
kids were way more interested in my camera!, 8) the locally collected
rainfall data.

Just checked my email...

2009-03-05T10:47:00.001-05:00

192 new messages in less than 2 1/2 days. Boy it was nice to be off the grid, even just for a little bit...

Adi Ha

2009-03-05T10:39:00.001-05:00

So after passing through a camel caravan, having a 7 hour meeting with
farmers under a tree, and copying down some rainfall data written in
Tigrinya, I'm back from Adi Ha.

Can't write too much since I'm at an internet cafe and have another
meeting soon, but I hope the pictures sum up a bit of how
breathtaking, vivid, real, and meaningful the past 2 days were. The
most encouraging thing was I think the meeting with the Adi Ha
farmers. Our first cut at the data showed that about 90% of those
that attended were very interested in insurance as a drought risk
management strategy - and willing to give up some of what little money
they had to pay for it. What's more, the meeting ran about 3 hours
late, and the farmers refused to leave - so we turned our vehicles
around and turned the headlights toward the tree so we could keep
going. Pretty amazing.

Starting now for the rest of the trip will be the high level meetings,
hammering out strategy to make this project happen for this year.
Marjorie and I had about a 20 hour day yesterday, and probably will
have the same each day until we leave. Except maybe this weekend.
I'm going to try to go to another local market here - and if I have
the chance, to go see one of the 800yr old stone-hewn churches that
Tigray is famous for. But I really think it's going to be too much to
squeeze in for this trip. I'm ok with that though - Adi Ha was worth
it.

On to Adi Ha tomorrow

2009-03-02T16:36:00.001-05:00

So tomorrow we're off for our quick tour of Adi Ha. I wish we could spend more than effectively 24 hours there, but I guess there's only so much talking to farmers you can do at the implementation stage of a project. Check back Wednesday night for pictures and stories.

First day in Mekele

2009-03-01T08:48:00.002-05:00

This morning, we arrived in Mekele - in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia - on a sunrise flight. Again, we quickly got to work after landing. Marjorie actually even had a couple of relevant strategy meetings on the plane with familiar faces that happened to be on the same flight as us! After a walk around town, (and some macchiatos and "special foul" (pronounced "fool") for breakfast - a mixture of beans, scrambled eggs, and spices served in a bowl - it was actually in my breakfast picture on the first day) we had a meeting with the director of the local government weather service office - who then invited me to his house for a coffee ceremony and lunch. What an experience. I felt so honored to be welcomed so thoroughly by his family. The dusty streets were later quenched by a gentle afternoon thunderstorm... it was so beautiful and a welcome contrast to busy Addis. A great day.

************

Sunrise flight.

Amharic warning notice.

Tigray. A bit dry. Marjorie says it reminds her of El Paso.

Sunday Ethiopian Orthodox church service.

Downtown Mekele.

Soccer match from my hotel window.

View from my hotel window.

Waiting for the coffee ceremony at Yosef's house.

Yosef's wife making the coffee.

Yosef talking animatedly about climate change adaptation.

The front of Yosef's house, with their 2 cows.

Yosef's son walking his bike.

Terracing Yosef and his brother constructed near their house.

The small bridge that Yosef and his brother built.

The road from Yosef's house back to town.

Addis Merkato

2009-02-28T08:53:00.002-05:00

So this afternoon I took a trip with a couple friends (and a local guide) to the Addis Merkato, the biggest outdoor market in Africa.

Below are some pictures.

The market was a great cross-section of Ethiopian life, culture, and commerce. According to Lonely Planet, you can buy everything from coffee to Kalishnikovs there, although we saw none of the latter. Even still, it was a memorable experience. I realized that the Bole region of town (where our hotel is) is pretty posh compared to the rest of the city - but even still, Addis is pretty booming.

Tomorrow morning I will be flying north to Mekele, the capital of Tigray province. From there, over the next few days we will have meetings in Mekele, and then go to the village of Adi Ha for 2 days. For me, personally and professionally, this will be the highlight of the entire trip.

Not sure if I will be as connected in Tigray as I have been here the past few days, but if not, I'll be sure to update you on March 8th, when I return to Addis.

****************

My colleague Chris and I had to help our driver push our cab into the parking space.

The market was crowded today - Saturday is the biggest market day of the week.

Many different types of people (and donkeys) come to the market.

The spice market. This type is used in traditional coffee ceremonies.

Different types of beans.

Potatoes, onions, and garlic.

A guy carrying a lot of mattresses.

These girls sold me a pack of gum, and then followed me around for the next hour, smiling and waving. They were pretty cute, so I overpaid.

Our lunch was Pepsi and cake. Not too traditional, but still good.

Somewhat scary mannequins.

Ancient bibles, church scrolls, and prayer beads for sale. Probably illegal. Or at least unethical. (Wouldn't a museum like to have them?)

Silver jewelry and old coins.

An interior part of the market.

Heading home - there were still a lot of people out.

Some goats.

Dinner last night, and the super market

2009-02-28T02:29:00.003-05:00

So in my previous post, I wrote about our traditional Ethiopian dinner we shared last night. Here are some pictures - which are super small due to bandwidth reasons, but you might get the idea. On the way home from dinner we stopped in a small supermarket close to our hotel. Markets like this I think are a window to the inner workings of a place.

Today I hope to wonder around town a little bit (with my big camera) and prepare for the flight to Tigray and the week of meetings in Mekele and the village, Adi Ha. More stories and pictures soon.

p.s. it was SO nice to sleep in this morning!

***********

Sunset after our last meeting last night... the moon and stars were so beautiful.

The musicians at dinner.

The lighting inside the yurt-restaurant were traditional clay lamps hung from the ceiling.

Our candlelit table.

The staff gathered around a table in the corner, chatting.

Our food... there's a small glass in the corner for scale.

"Dat Super Market"

Some soap.

Some noodles.

Some coke.

Some photos so far

2009-02-27T14:26:00.004-05:00

Below are some pictures I've taken over the past 24 hours (it seems like about 3 days! since I landed last night)... I had a 13 hour day today, 5 long meetings, 3 coffees, some amazing food, and a lot of progress. Marjorie called it an unqualified success - but I wish I would have had a day to de-jetlag and get some thoughts together before going straight into full-out miked presentations to a room full of 30 Ethiopian businessmen and women in suits, including the CEO and the General Manager of one of the largest insurance companies in the country. But on the other hand, we probably got more done today than in my entire trip to Malawi last summer. The coming days should calm down for a bit, but we just scratched the surface today of the potential partnerships that will be formed by the time I'm on a plane back home. It's definitely exciting, but my brain needs some sleep to process it all.

Addis is without a doubt one of the most impressive cities I've seen in a developing country - clean-ish, friendly, safe, and beautiful. I can see how some people can get addicted to it. The coffee equipment is way advanced (and although I don't drink coffee, I think its impolite to refuse something when someone offers), there's a great diversity of people, weather is pretty nice (although a few times today i was burning up in my wool suit) and a lot of times (this was the most unexpectedly exciting thing so far) when you walk into a restaurant, they have insense burning in the corner - full out burning logs in a small open brass pot and smoke that reminds me of the middle ages. And Marjorie says this is nothing compared to Tigray. Can't wait.

Tonight for dinner we went to a traditional Ethiopian restaurant in a large dimly lit yurt with candles and insense (of course) and grass on the floor and beautifully carved low wooden stools and tables (and staff in traditional dress, and a live Ethiopian band - a mix between middle eastern and chinese and african music - AND two little Ethiopian girls dancing by themselves on the dance floor). As you can guess, it was a lot of fun. Like I told my friend at dinner, my camera can record video, but it can't record smell too...

*************

Flying KLM was pretty nice. Good movie selection, really good food, and I had a lot of room for most of both flights. And, Dutch people are funny.

Amsterdam was fun too. They sell wooden shoes in the airport.

And fresh tulips. Very stereotypical.

We flew over the Sahara Desert from Amsterdam to our fuel stop in Khartoum, Sudan.

Sand dunes in the Sahara over Egypt.

Crossing the Nile.

Landing in Khartoum. One of the driest cities I have ever seen - everything is the color of the desert.

A small patch of irrigation where the White Nile and Blue Nile join.

My Ethiopian immigration card.

Landing in Addis Ababa.

Our taxi from the airport to the hotel.

Check-in notice at the hotel.

We were starving.

My first Ethiopian food.

Ready for meetings in my new suit!

The Oxfam office.

Mother and child on our way to a meeting.

Breakfast (with incense in the background)

Insurance company CEO.

Roundtable meeting with insurance company branch managers.

Ethiopian beer at our lunch meeting.

Busy Addis street and Coke sign.

In Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

2009-02-26T17:14:00.001-05:00

Hey everyone, just a quick note to say I made it about 3 hours ago to Addis, got my visa, made it through customs, picked up my bag, changed money, found the driver that was supposed to pick us up, got a ride to the hotel, and already had a strategy meeting with one of our Oxfam partners over dinner (which I can't wait to show you.... you guys know how I like to take pictures of my food!) It's 1am here right now, and Marjorie (the Oxfam partner that I'll be traveling with almost exclusively over the next two weeks told me at dinner that the two of us have 3 meetings lined up for tomorrow - the first one at 9am across town, so she's meeting me at 7:30. Jetlag, shmetlag. But really, I'm looking forward to getting right down to business, and trying out my new suit! (Thanks Sarah!)

The airport, the roads, the cars, the restaurants, etc are actually all pretty nice. I'm impressed so far with Ethiopia. There was even a flat screen plasma tv mounted on the wall of the little restaurant at dinner. But I have had my first heartbreak already - the road from the airport to the hotel (which is mid-range Africa all the way, stained offwhite bed, blank walls, and flip flops for the bathroom) was lined with people sleeping on the sidewalk, mostly women it looked like. And also there were 4 or 5 suspiciously well-dressed women leaning by lightposts on our walk to the restaurant. It's hard knowing that these things exist here every day - even yesterday, last week, and last year - when my thoughts are safely elsewhere and I'm riding laps on my bike around Prospect Park at home. I'm sure I'll have more similar stories as my visit progresses.

For now, I'm gonna head to bed. The internet here is old-school dial up - I even heard the modem, waited for the "verifying username and password" message, and connected at 28.8kbps. So I don't know how soon pictures will come, but I'll try to do that as soon as possible.

Good night for now from Ethiopia.

In Amsterdam

2009-02-26T03:22:00.002-05:00

Just landed in Amsterdam an hour or two ago... I smiled as I walked past the kiosks selling fresh tulips in painted wooden shoes. Internet is 3 Euro per 15 min (do the math) so the 3 of us that are traveling together are doing a few super quick mails before we get our next flight - to Ethiopia. I was thinking on the plane that the last time I was in Europe was for my study abroad 8 years ago - in spring of 2001... a lot has changed since then, in the world, and in my own life. There was no Euro then, pre- September 11th, and pre-Emery.

See you in Africa.

To Ethiopia!

2009-02-25T15:24:00.000-05:00

Hi everyone... I'm about an hour or two from taking off for the airport, but I wanted to let everyone know that I'm planning on updating the blog as much as possible while I'm gone with pictures and stories from my trip to Ethiopia. So, You'll all be there with me in spirit.

I've gotten a lot of little shocks over the last few days and weeks that remind me of the reality of my situation - that someone growing up in a small town in Kansas would first of all end up living in New York and second of all travel to Ethiopia for work on poverty and development issues. I guess it seems a little unlikely to me, but on the other hand, maybe it's just as likely as anything. Each of us in the end must take what we are given - sometimes I just feel a little (a lot) guilty that I have been given so much.

In the past month since I have written here, my sister gave birth to a beautiful baby boy - Emery Oliver. I got to meet him when he was just 10 days old, and now I know what they mean on the commercial when they say "a baby changes everything". Emery really changed the lives of our family - but he changed mine in a special way too. When I was holding him for the first time, I had a feeling like I've never had before - that holding this baby, that caring for him was the most right thing I've ever done - that he would give purpose to my life. Now, I'm guessing those of you that have had your own baby, or that have had someone very close to you have a child have felt something like this. But it was new for me, and has really changed the way I think about things, even weeks later, and I'm guessing probably for the rest of my life. So, I'm really looking forward to my next visit with Emery and the rest of my family for his baptism, just 2 days after I return from Ethiopia in March. Check my sister's blog for updates on Emery, if you haven't already.

While I'm in Ethiopia, I'll be working with our development partner Oxfam America to help them explore strategies with local partners on managing drought risk for poor farmers in the region. We'll be meeting with local banks, government officials, local NGO's, and farmers about the possibility of using insurance tied to local rainfall to help offset some of the cost of using more advanced drought resistant farming techniques (like improved seeds and fertilizer) to help local farmers better adapt to the changing climate and break out of the poverty traps caused by existing climate variability. Here's a recent PDF presentation from my boss on our project with Oxfam in Ethiopia, presented at last year's COP in Poland. Specifically, we're going to be working with teff farmers - teff is the grain that's used to make injera - the main type of bread in Ethiopia (which I'm sure you've had if you've been to an Ethiopian restaurant!)

Also while I'm there, I'll be putting together an audio slideshow similar to this one and this one about our work in the region. The second slideshow above was taken in a region only a few miles from where I will be, almost exactly a year ago - so much of those views will be similar to what I'll be experiencing. I'm really excited about taking an audio recorder along with my camera and being creative - telling our story as best I can.

While I was looking for the map below, I experienced another of those little shocks I've been having lately - as I'm trying to culturally prepare myself for my trip. Average lifespan in Ethiopia: 42. Per captita income: $700/yr. Life in this place is completely completely different than in the United States. How do I reconcile their lives with my own? How do I honor the injustices they face on a daily basis - while zipping around their country on jets and staying in hotels at no cost to me? Is the small amount of good I may accomplish on this trip ever going to amount to anything?

More to come.

Happy 2009 everyone!

2009-01-17T21:12:00.003-05:00

Happy 2009! It's my hope that 2009 is an improvement on 2008... for me and for the world. Hopefully you, too, have a lot to look forward to this year. I know I do. The very first thing will be Pat and Jenn's baby... he's due any day! Keep her in your prayers... I can't wait to hold the little guy!

The best part of 2008 - the election of Barack Obama as our next president - is coming to completion this week with the inauguration. My friends in DC are freaking out - from excitement, and from the fact that they won't be able to get to work, or anywhere for that matter. All the roads within a mile or so of downtown are being shutdown, as well as all the bridges to Virginia. Depending on weather, anywhere from 1.5 - 3 million people are expected. It's going to be the biggest gathering of people in the history of the city - and that city has some history.

I spent the day today watching the historic train ride from Philadelphia to DC on CNN... while putting together some new furniture in my apt. I'm so thankful to be a witness to this moment in American history. To see the millions of people across the country, from so many backgrounds, all inspired by the hope symbolized by this one man - hope not in him as a person, but hope that through our combined efforts, the America of 2009 might be better than the America of the past... that we can come together and make the world a better place.

New Years also marked a job change for me at the IRI - I'm now working more broadly and directly with field partners to implement drought insurance - and already feel like I'm more a part of the team. This week I had 3 phone conferences, and probably a half dozen meetings at work. Last year, it would have been just me and my excel spreadsheets. I'm also working on several different projects, rather that just the Millennium Villages Project. Right now, my main project is an Oxfam project in Ethiopia (that was recently featured in Newsweek), but we just got word this week that we'll start working soon on an additional project, with CARE International in Indonesia. Naturally, I'm really excited.

Someone who's already made 2009 a great year for 155 people and their families is the pilot of US Airways Flight 1549, Chesley Sullenberger. Not only did he make an unprecedented water landing in the middle of my city, but before he left the sinking aircraft, he walked the aisles twice to make sure everyone was off. What a man.

So, I just had to go down and see this plane he glided to safety in the middle of the freezing Hudson River. The local news (channel 9) caught me in the act, and you can see the result below.

Here's to a happy 2009.

Miles 4 MDGs

2008-12-19T19:55:00.002-05:00

Hi all,
This is a message to officially announce a new blog: http://m4mdg.blogspot.com/

Not much yet, but I hope to raise a little bit of support for the Millennium Villages Project and for MVP-like projects (One.org, UNICEF, etc), and more importantly, to show that average people can make a difference. Lots of people run marathons, lots of people ride bikes, lots of people go hiking, skiing, canoeing, lots of people do lots of things... why not dedicate it to ending poverty?

We are the first generation that can end poverty, extreme poverty, across the entire world. Extreme poverty - defined as living on less than $1 a day. Over 1 billion people, 1 in 6 people in the world, live on this much every day. I've been lucky enough to meet some of them in the course of my job, to hear their hopes and dreams, to see their kids playing and crying and daydreaming just like any other kids anywhere else in the world.

We can help them... but better yet, we can help them help themselves work their way out of poverty. It's almost impossible to pull yourself out of poverty.... just like it's almost impossible to run a marathon by yourself - with no support and no training. We need debt forgiveness for poor countries, new technologies to fight hunger and disease, restructuring of global trade, and to follow through with our aid promises.

We can do it, and together we can make the world a better place.

Snow in Park Slope!

2008-12-19T19:20:00.003-05:00

Finally, today we had our first real snowstorm of the season here in Brooklyn. For me, this was a much anticipated event (especially since we were beat by New Orleans)... but a snow day on the last official work day before break was a great surprise. So, as those of you who know me could probably guess, I spent the day working from home and taking pictures out of my window.

Later in the day I had a proper walk around the block, and took some more pictures.

We're almost done with the paper we've been working on for the last 2 months (read: I've been putting off for two months), which means that my time working directly with the Millennium Villages Project is also almost done. It's been such a wonderful experience, and it's helped me mature both as a scientist and as a human person.

This week I had an interview to continue on at the IRI, in a similar but more senior position. My role will be (hopefully) to support a range of similar projects on weather index insurance that the IRI is involved in around the world. My job will be in 3 parts: outreach, tool development, and basic research. The outreach will formalize some of the work I've been doing this year (most notably my trip to Malawi and Tanzania in July) - helping engage stakeholders on projects in the field. Currently, the projects I'd be working on are located in Central America and Ethiopia, with the potential for new projects in India and Indonesia and a few other places. For tool development, we're constructing a web-based application that can help with both education and implementation of weather insurance contracts. This is requiring me to (re-)learn some computer programming, but it's been fun so far getting up to speed again. Basic research will be the most similar to my job the past two and a half years, developing new methods and refining old methods for identifying climate-induced drought impacts using data from weather stations and satellites. Last night, the IRI had their annual holiday party, and it was so nice to think that I'll get to keep spending time with these people that I feel like I've just recently gotten to know a little better. They're so inspiring, and supportive of me and each other. On the way home, I thought to myself, my life is really wonderful.

On a related note:
My marathon training is also going well - and I've decided to dedicate my run to the Millennium Villages Project. I'll be running the National Marathon in Washington DC on March 21st. Any and all donations I gather in the meantime (which I don't expect to be much, but anything will help!) I'll donate to the MVP. I've also started another blog so I can chronicle my training and hopefully inspire other people to do something similar for similar causes. Idealistic, I know... but hey, that's how I roll.

I hope everyone has a wonderful holiday, and I'll be seeing some of you in a few days!

Snow today in New Orleans!

2008-12-11T11:13:00.003-05:00

Yesterday I noticed the huge winter storm moving through the eastern half of the country - with a forecast of freezing rain in Nyack, wondering if I'd be able to make it home from work. I also noticed that snow was forecast for as far south as Memphis. "That's funny", I thought... "but surely it won't make it down to NOLA..."

WRONG!

(Pictures from NOLA.com)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
817 AM CST THU DEC 11 2008

.UPDATE...

THE WINTER STORM ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING ACROSS THE PCWA...EXCEPT THE LOWER PARISHES IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA. ACCCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTH
SHORE...MAINLY ON BRIDGES...OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES...AND GRASSY
AREAS. 25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CST THU DEC 11 2008/

UPDATE...
COOP OBSERVER IN BRUSLY REPORTED 3 TO 4 INCHES ON THE GROUND AT
630 AM. IN ADDITION...STATE POLICE REPORTED NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS
IN AND AROUND THE BATON ROUGE AREA DUE TO SNOW ON ROADS. TRAFFIC
CAMS REVEALED WHITE ON INTERSTATE 10 AND INTERSTATE 12. HAVE
UPGRADED ADVISORY TO WARNING FOR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...EXCLUDING
MISSISSIPPI COAST AND FLORIDA PARISHES TIL NOON.

&&

Will America still be America without Chevrolet?

2008-12-05T13:10:00.002-05:00

Tough times... apparently GM and Chrysler are now both in talks about a possible bankruptcy as condition for accepting a government bailout. Chrysler has already hired a bankruptcy firm.

Can you imagine an America that has no American made cars? Is that such a bad thing? This is truly a sign of globalization... especially the globalization of capitalism. If Toyota can make the same quality product for a cheaper price, then why not reward them for that? Isn't that the result of the same value system that America was born on?

The problem is that 3 million people's jobs depend on the survival of the American car industry. Not to mention, more than a little bit of pride. These are the kinds of things that pure capitalism fails to take into account. The externalities of a big 3 bankruptcy will extend well beyond what any of us can probably realize right now.

So I say, bail them out, but make it hard on them. Make them promise to revolutionize the auto industry. Make them commit to being global leaders in sustainability. Make them pioneer the practical, affordable, ubiquitious 21st century transportation system. Not only electric cars, but how about public transit too? Buses, taxis, maybe some new system we haven't even thought of yet?

I would ride a Chevrolet subway car to work every day. Maybe they'll be doing just that in Kansas City in 2025.

This is huge...

2008-12-05T12:26:00.001-05:00

Wow, can you imagine? Face to face talks between Obama and Raul Castro in Guantanamo?

That's the kind of change I can believe in.

Last night!

2008-11-29T14:33:00.001-05:00

Last night, Becca and I went to the Grand Ole Opry at the Ryman Auditorium in downtown Nashville. Amazing. I forgot how much I like good old country music and bluegrass. We saw some legends - Little Jimmy Dickens, John Conlee (Common Man), Charlie Pride (Kiss an Angel Good Morning), and Charlie Daniels (Devil went down to Georgia). Afterward we went to Roberts Western World - a good ol honky tonk.

Today, we're going to the new Nashville Planetarium, paletas, and Christmas lights at the Opryland Hotel!

Yay for friends and yay for Nashville!

Kansas

2008-11-23T16:10:00.002-05:00

I was talkin' to my sis the other day, in person. Which is something right there. But we both agreed that at times, we are a bit jealous of each other's lifestyles. I feel blessed to have been able to meet so many interesting people, travel to so many interesting places, and live in such an interesting city. But I also would like (someday) to have a nice home with a fireplace, and cute pictures of my honeymoon, and photo albums arranged under the coffee table. Fortunately, or unfortunately, today is not that day. But on the other hand, our realization helps me to appreciate more of what I have, and what I am, everyday. Being happy in the present moment.

I feel like every time I come home, it seems so short, and it seems like so much has happened since the last time we saw each other. Which is fine, but at some point, you just want to be close to your family - to the people that mean the most to you. You want to stop missing all the things that happened in between. But these short trips help me to remember how much my family really means to me. Really, in a real way.

I am thankful for Park Slope, my first New York home. And my New Orleans home. And my Africa home. And my home that's always waiting for me in Kansas. And especially, right now, for talk of future visits, and hugs waiting for me in all my homes.

I'm still here...

2008-11-13T18:43:00.004-05:00

It's a busy time for us at work right now... we're wrapping up a 30 month long project, and I'm writing the report. But I still have a lot of thoughts floating around from the past few weeks, and I'll gradually be posting them here, so stay tuned.

Biggest news: I'm going to be moving to Park Slope, Brooklyn in a few weeks - my job offered me an extension (paperwork isn't totally complete yet though), and hopefully with that comes a raise. So, I'm gonna take the chance and move to the place I've always wanted to live. Mostly, because of this.

Also, a friend sent out this group of pictures taken by a photographer for Time magazine over the last 2 years. There are some great shots of Obama. Very emotional.

Marathon training is going well, and this past weekend I ran 6 miles, including across the Williamsburg bridge. It was a beautiful night. Clear, cold, and the lights of the city spread out in front of me. It felt great.

Hope you're all well. Hopefully I'll see some of you back home next week at Cam's wedding!

Al Gore for Secretary of State

2008-11-11T12:30:00.002-05:00

Today, a columnist for the Washington Post made the argument that Al Gore should become Barack Obama's Secretary of State. I think it would be a bold and clear move that Obama is elevating the climate/energy issue to the very top of his agenda. In no way do I expect this to actually happen - but it's going to take bold leadership of this sort to make the real changes that Obama stressed during his campaign.

Gore has been shopping around his plan lately to not only rid our country completely of its dependence on foreign oil in the next 10 years, but eliminate all fossil fuel usage in the country completely in that time frame. Of course it's a huge task - but it's also a huge problem. As a country and as a world, our efforts to slow global warming over the past 10 years (since Kyoto was signed in 1998) have been by nearly all accounts a failure. Not only have we failed so far to make any reductions in CO2 emissions, we are actually still increasing the rate of emissions. And a recent report said that not only are we increasing emissions globally, but emissions are increasing at a rate above the worst case scenario set out by the IPCC in 2000. Above it! Now, emissions in Europe have begun to peak, but those reductions are more than offset by the rise of China, India and the rest of the developing world. We're going to need a truly global agreement in order to save ourselves. Maybe Gore is the person for that job, maybe not - but it definitely deserves attention as one of the very most important issues of an Obama administration.

Below is an excerpt from Gore's oped in Sunday's New York Times:

What follows is a five-part plan to repower America with a commitment to producing 100 percent of our electricity from carbon-free sources within 10 years. It is a plan that would simultaneously move us toward solutions to the climate crisis and the economic crisis — and create millions of new jobs that cannot be outsourced.

First, the new president and the new Congress should offer large-scale investment in incentives for the construction of concentrated solar thermal plants in the Southwestern deserts, wind farms in the corridor stretching from Texas to the Dakotas and advanced plants in geothermal hot spots that could produce large amounts of electricity.

Second, we should begin the planning and construction of a unified national smart grid for the transport of renewable electricity from the rural places where it is mostly generated to the cities where it is mostly used. New high-voltage, low-loss underground lines can be designed with “smart” features that provide consumers with sophisticated information and easy-to-use tools for conserving electricity, eliminating inefficiency and reducing their energy bills. The cost of this modern grid — $400 billion over 10 years — pales in comparison with the annual loss to American business of $120 billion due to the cascading failures that are endemic to our current balkanized and antiquated electricity lines.

Third, we should help America’s automobile industry (not only the Big Three but the innovative new startup companies as well) to convert quickly to plug-in hybrids that can run on the renewable electricity that will be available as the rest of this plan matures. In combination with the unified grid, a nationwide fleet of plug-in hybrids would also help to solve the problem of electricity storage. Think about it: with this sort of grid, cars could be charged during off-peak energy-use hours; during peak hours, when fewer cars are on the road, they could contribute their electricity back into the national grid.

Fourth, we should embark on a nationwide effort to retrofit buildings with better insulation and energy-efficient windows and lighting. Approximately 40 percent of carbon dioxide emissions in the United States come from buildings — and stopping that pollution saves money for homeowners and businesses. This initiative should be coupled with the proposal in Congress to help Americans who are burdened by mortgages that exceed the value of their homes.

Fifth, the United States should lead the way by putting a price on carbon here at home, and by leading the world’s efforts to replace the Kyoto treaty next year in Copenhagen with a more effective treaty that caps global carbon dioxide emissions and encourages nations to invest together in efficient ways to reduce global warming pollution quickly, including by sharply reducing deforestation.

New target stock price for GM: $0.

2008-11-10T15:58:00.002-05:00

Yes, you read that right. A new analysis by Deutsche Bank out today is predicting GM stock to be worthless in the next 12 months. What impact would that have on the American economy?

Now I'll be the first to say that GM has gone down the wrong path over the last few decades - encouraging over-consumption with the SUV craze and ever larger, more powerful engines. But that doesn't mean they can't recover.

GM has been our family's business since my first birthday. I would be extremely sad to see the company go bankrupt. But at this point, it seems like nothing less than a complete overhaul of the entire operation could save it. GM burned through more than $7B in cash in the last 3 months alone - and is forecasted to run out of cash completely as early as 6 months from now. They called off merger talks with Chrysler, and are now begging Congress for money. Even a government bailout at this point will only delay the inevitable unless it is accompanied by a complete restructuring.

From a climate perspective, maybe that is a good thing. GM could retain its profitable truck models, scrap many of the overlapping brands and models in between (SUVs and full size cars) and shift the rest of its focus entirely on small hybrid/electric cars and remake itself as an environmental leader, pushing for cutting edge technology adoption, and positioning itself as a future-looking growth company. At least that would keep the factories and retail outlets open - and could maybe save a million jobs.

As of today, here are some companies that now have approximately the same market cap (value of the company) as GM:
Priceline.com
Abercrombie and Fitch
Weight Watchers
Marvel Comics
Smuckers (yes, the jam and jelly maker), and
Wabtec Corp (which makes brakes for trains)

For the record, GM finished at $3.36 today, down over 22% to a 62 year low. As a result, the S&P cut GM's credit rating further into "junk" status.

Getting home tonight

2008-11-09T00:11:00.002-05:00

So, the NYC subway system is officially a mess. For some reason, almost ALL the lines are doing construction, but suspiciously absent are any construction workers.

This is how I got home tonight from my friend's house in Queens, normally about a 50 min ride.

10:31- get to the 30th Av N stop - wait 16 min for a N shuttle train to Queensboro Plaza.
(the N/W trains are running in sections - and there's no N/W train service between Times Square and Queensboro Plaza)
10:58- at Queensboro Plaza, take a 7 train to Bryant Park.
(Here I intended to take a F train to Essex St, but instead...)
11:10- at Bryant Park (which has some awesome mosaic murals inside, btw), take a Brooklyn bound R train which I'm surprised to find is running on the 6th Ave. line but crossing the Manhattan Bridge. I need to cross the Williamsburg Bridge.
11:16- on the R train. Normally I would get off at 14th st to take the L, but the L has also been running in sections, stopping at Myrtle Av. with shuttle buses running the rest of the route. My stop, Wilson Av., is 2 stops past Myrtle. So I decide to keep going to Grand St., where I'll have to go up to the street and walk to Bowery St. - the J train stop 3 blocks from Grand St.
11:40- at Bowery St., swipe my Metrocard - and realize the the J is ALSO running in sections, to Essex St. The sign says one train every 20 min, so I decide to go back out to the street and just walk down Delancey to Essex.
11:46- at Essex St. Finally. Swipe my Metrocard for the 3rd time this journey, and race up the 3 flights of stairs to the J platform where I find a crowded J train waiting for me. Two people are sleeping stretched out on the bench inside, holding each other and sleeping - taking up 6 seats. I smile. Life is good.
12:07- at Chauncey St. and home.

In total, 4 trains, 1hr, 36 min.

But, Miranda, those brussel sprouts were SO worth it. =)

President-elect Obama... the day after.

2008-11-06T17:14:00.002-05:00

There's those words again. "President-elect".

I feel like today is still "the day after" because yesterday, like most people I know, I was still in a haze of joy and disbelief.

Today the happy reality is settling in a bit. A smile is still on my face, and a "Hope" button is still on my jacket, but the reality is that no single person can fix all the world's problems. Still- this victory is a sign that great things are possible when a group of dedicated people share a common vision - and a little luck.

What's getting me today is what this means - the deeper meaning. This campaign was about way more than Dem vs Repub, Red vs Blue, or even the economy, Iraq, or Bush - it was a fundamental choice about where we want to go as a country. Do we want to make that leap into a 21st century America, a post-racial America where we give ourselves an opportunity to overcome our past and work together for a better future, or are we ok with the way things are? For Obama, "Hope" was much more than just a campaign slogan. Hope is what Americans see in Obama - hope that the future of America can be here, right now.

This week, all the thousands and millions of people that gave their lives to the evils of slavery and the struggles of the civil rights movement played a part. America came full circle. America became a symbol to the world again of the promise of justice and equality that every person deserves. Never before has a minority been elected president in any western country. That's why people cheered and cried. And if America can come together to overcome all this, what more is possible?

I wanted to give an impression of just how big this moment was. Strong words, but I think that never before has there been such a mass celebration across the country at precisely the same moment. It gives me chills thinking about it... and reliving it in my mind. Without a doubt, it will always be one of the happiest moments of my life.

Below are a few glimpses into the shared joy our country experienced Tuesday night.

chicago rally at the exact moment

spontaneous national anthem in portland, or

boulder, co

san francisco

seattle

east village nyc

harlem

times square

on the subway - nyc

dc

outside the white house

atlanta

and finally, in Kenya, which declared yesterday a national holiday in celebration

Now arriving: change.gov

2008-11-06T15:46:00.002-05:00

Launching today, President-elect Obama's (I don't think I'll get tired of hearing that any time soon!) transition website.

Complete with a job application page!

Today I am so proud of my country.

2008-11-05T23:30:00.000-05:00

As the results keep rolling in, the fact is still sinking in to my head. Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States.

Below are county results from the places I campaigned and places I've lived. (Obama/McCain)

bucks county pa 54/45
scranton pa 63/37

osage ks 34/64
st louis city mo 84/16
mountrail nd 50/48
marshall al 21/78
marion or 50/48
cleveland ok 38/62
orleans la 79/19
kings (brooklyn) ny 79/20

Single copies of today's New York Times going for $50-$100+ on eBay

2008-11-05T16:40:00.000-05:00

Thank you Caitlin for bringing one home for me!

Election night reaction in Park Slope, Brooklyn

2008-11-05T12:45:00.002-05:00

Minutes after the election was called for Obama:

On the walk home, about 2 hours later:

Liveblog!

2008-11-04T19:00:00.027-05:00

7:00:
VT(3) for Obama
KY(8) for McCain

Maybe McCain's only lead of the night.

No call yet for GA, IN, SC, VA...

Good sign if they can't call GA or IN yet!

7:16:
OMG... CNN just hologrammed in their Chicago correspondent.

Maybe she'll give us the secret Obama jedi mind tricks?

7:21:
MSNBC has Indiana too close to call, Virginia too EARLY to call. Big difference there.

8:07:
Made it to Andrew's house, and we have such a 21st century watch party going on here.

We have 4 laptops going, MSNBC live, Democracy Now live, Pollster.com and 538.com.

Biggest news I missed on the subway - MSNBC called PA for Obama with 0% reporting. Good sign but maybe premature??

8:14:
VA is 56/43 for McCain right now, FL is 54/46 Obama. The difference - nothing from northern virginia is in yet, and Orlando, Tampa, and Miami are almost the only ones reporting in florida.

8:28:
3 Senate pickups (NH, VA, and NC) and NH and PA for Obama so far. It might be a pretty good night.

8:32:
Virginia is still too close to call (with a pretty big McCain lead) with 38% reporting. This is what McCain people were hoping for. This is their last hope.

8:35:
GA just called for McCain. This might be a longer night than I thought. from MSNBC: VA was the capital of the confederacy. what a huge message if it votes for an african-american for president tonight.

8:41:
First Chuck Todd sighting of the night: coming up after these messages.

8:45:
Chuck Todd: Obama has not yet flipped a Bush state yet. But Florida is looking good. IN still has 0% reporting in Lake County. Nothing unexpected has happened yet. Still no projections in the 8 tossup states. McCain needs all 8-0.

8:49:
Conversation around the laptops: Obama has run a very predictable, safe campaign (with a lot of money) - but if he can transfer that practicality into his administration, we'll have a whole new approach to effective government.

8:54:
Chris Matthews to Tom DeLay: looks like the Republican House has gone to hell since you left.
Tom DeLay - you're absolutely right.

9:00:
KS for McCain
NY for Obama

9:02:
AZ too CLOSE to call....
but, ND is called for McCain. This might be a close night.

Andrew: "I'm starting to rue my recent confidence"

9:04:
OH too EARLY to call, for Obama. That might be the clincher.

9:06:
Chris Matthews: The main policy fights over the next 2 years might be between Obama and Nancy Pelosi.
Rachel Maddow: Bring it on. I'll take it.

9:07:
Chuck Todd: Virginia is tightening.

9:09:
Reality check: Obama needs only 95 more electoral votes. With California it's less than 50.

9:19:
IN: McCain up by 40,000, still 0% from Lake Co
VA: McCain up by 30,000, still 10% from Arlington
FL: Obama up by 200,000

9:21:
Live from Grant Park in Chicago - THOUSANDS of cheering supporters anxiously biting fingernails.

9:23:
Ohio for Obama!!!! That's the election!!!!!!!?

9:25:
If Obama wins CO, it's over.

9:30:
VA: down to a 10,000 vote difference.

9:31:
NM for Obama.

9:33:
195 + 55 (CA) + 11(WA) + 7(OR) + 4(HI) = 272.
But still no one has called it yet.

9:36:
Chris Matthews is writing the obituary for McCain.

9:38:
Keith Olbermann picked up on the above math.

9:48:
Now I think it's just a wait-and-see. Ohio was the deciding factor.

11:00:
Wow. I just got chills. Obama is our president.

First polls close in 3 minutes...

2008-11-04T18:57:00.005-05:00

Fivethirtyeight.com looks like it has some excellent coverage in store tonight. That's where I'll be clicking "refresh".

Suuuuuper early results are looking good!
Final 538 projection: Obama 349, McCain 189.

My little piece of history...

2008-11-04T15:40:00.007-05:00

I just voted. I'll always remember what I felt at that moment.

Today, I feel a little like part of me is dying. It's the part of me that is holding on to the past... the cynical part of me that thinks it's ok to sit back and let other people do the hard work. That things are always going to go from bad to worse in this country. That individuals can't make a difference.

In a real way, a new hope is growing inside me. On the street, people are uncontrollably happy. Like good New Yorkers, they're trying to hold it in, but you can catch glimpses - smiles exchanged with strangers on the subway platform, mothers holding their children's hands walking in to the polling places, friends joking and laughing waiting in line to vote. The American flags around the city seem especially colorful today.

Finally, the intangible is becoming a reality. Voting in East Harlem, it seemed especially fitting. This is a culmination of all the civil rights movement worked for. This is a beacon of hope - an American Dream fulfilled - for all those who came to this country as immigrants. And for my generation - we are finally learning, for the first time in our adult lives, that the America we learned about in our history books - the "shining beacon on the hill" - is being restored.

This moment is so important because of Obama's story. Obama symbolizes 21st century America. Mixed-race, the son of an immigrant, with roots in the west, the midwest, and around the world. If his amazing story is true, if Obama is a sign of our country's future, then truly anything is possible - for us too. If a "skinny black kid with a funny name" can be president, then why can't we turn off the TV and read to our kids? break an addiction? volunteer at a shelter? Why can't we all make our little corner of America a better place? Truly, America is a different place, a better place because his story is true. America will never be the same again.

This is a before and after moment in American history. And I'm proud to be a part of it.

12:01am

2008-11-04T00:01:00.001-05:00

It's started. The first day of our future as a country.

I think we're ready.

More on GOTV in Bucks County, PA

2008-11-03T23:58:00.002-05:00

Our GOTV routes today in Pennsylvania put us in the upper-middle class northeastern suburbs of Philadelphia. A little out of my league - and a little out of Obama's league as well - there were plenty more McCain signs than Obama signs... but the Obama campaign has consistently done a truly game-changing, amazing job with defining, re-defining, and narrowing down likely voter lists using all sorts of Google-inspired, super efficient techniques. Not a moment is wasted, and not a household is overlooked that may still be thinking about voting for our man. Not to mention the overwhelming volunteer turnout (our group had 3 high school girls, 2 New York City school teachers, and a guy who ran the NYC marathon YESTERDAY). The office we worked out of, in Warminster, PA was a satellite office of the main Bucks County office - itself one of over 80 Obama campaign offices JUST IN PA.

Today we were told that time is so critical that we shouldn't knock on any doors, and should try not to engage in any conversations - only work your way down your pre-defined sheet of undecided/lean Obama voters on your route, and hang a tag with information about their polling location on their door. I got through 3 lists and 95 doors myself yesterday, and since we were in spread out neighborhoods with big lawns, did probably 3-4 miles of walking in the 8 hours we were out.

The only people I talked to was a housewife who thought I was her husband coming home from work, and a 10-yo girl walking home from school that said she was voting for Obama in the "Kids vote" election at school tomorrow.

Below is the record of my day.

GOTV: Doylestown, PA

2008-11-02T20:36:00.004-05:00

So tomorrow I'll be riding the bus down to the outskirts of Philadelphia to the small town of Doylestown, PA - for Barack Obama's 72-hour get out the vote efforts in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, one of the four most important swing counties in the country, according to politico.com.

This is such an exciting time to be alive.

More tomorrow night.

UPDATE: Monday 11:40pm
Just got back from Bucks County about 10 minutes ago. It was an inspirational day, if only to know that I've been able to be a very small part of this historic campaign. When we arrived this morning around 10am, the field office organizer said that over the 2-day weekend the campaign knocked on over 2 million doors. Wow. At the time, I assumed that was across the country... but later on I found out it was JUST Pennsylvania. Really wow.

Today, the 9 of us that travelled from Brooklyn put voting information (polling times, precinct location, number to call if you need a ride) on 550 doors. We each did three shifts, and left PA at 9pm. The field staff were still there, and planned to be back in the office by 6am.

This is happening all over the country.

Please vote tomorrow. 18 hours to victory.

A must-see movie: Dear Zachary

2008-11-01T12:53:00.005-04:00

Last night, my friend and I decided to skip the halloween festivities (although we did get to see some good old fashioned door-to-door trick or treating in the village!) and go see this documentary, which is getting rave reviews from all over.

We had an extra special treat in that this was the theatrical premiere in New York - so the director and filmmaker was present in the theater after the showing for a Q&A. The theater people had to kick us out after an hour because we were so engrossed in hearing more of his story.

If you live in or near a city where this film will be showing, I highly recommend making the trip. It's one of those life-changing films - that uniquely captures the emotional journey of a family. It made me appreciate everything that parents do for their kids - and gave a glimpse of the unbreakable bond of love.

Here's the AMNY review:

You can read more reviews of the movie at: http://www.dearzachary.com/

A walk through Harlem on the eve of the election

2008-10-29T21:57:00.005-04:00

Tonight after work I decided to take a walk down 125th street in Harlem to capture a little bit of history. How is the center of the African American community in the United States preparing for the first African American president?

There's a lot of smiling faces with the answer below.

How things have changed in the last 4 years...

2008-10-29T16:30:00.004-04:00

From electoral-vote.com, a comparison of how much each state has shifted since the week before the 2004 election. Pay most attention to the last column, which shows the difference between polls taken the week before the last election, and the polls this week. It's pretty overwhelming.

By my counting, 42 states have become more Democratic in the last 4 years, and 22 states (22!) have shifted Democratic by at least 10 points. A somewhat meta way of thinking about this graph is, states on the top are more open to "change", and states on the bottom are a little more stuck in the mud. (In the case of places like DC and RI, maybe because they were already very strongly Democratic) But, I'm proud to say, Kansas is right about in the middle, at #30 - with a Democratic shift of +7 points.

One more thing: For some reason there's a looooooooooooong scroll, but it's worth it, I guarantee you. =)

Comparison of 2004 and 2008
It is instructive to compare the state of polling in 2004 as of the Tuesday before the election with state of polling yesterday. The table below shows the the Kerry - Bush score on Oct. 26, 2004 in column 2. Hawaii is an outlier because there was one freaky poll, but, on Oct. 26, 2004, the map showed Kerry ahead of Bush by 9 points in California, by 8 points in Illinois, and behind Bush by 8 points in New Mexico. The third column is the Kerry - Bush election result. For example, the prediction of a 9-point lead in California and an 8-point lead in Illinois were pretty good as Kerry won those states by 10.3 and 10.0 points respectively. The mean of the second column was a Bush lead of 4.4 points whereas the final results was a Bush lead of 6.0 points. These averages are not weighted by population, so they are not predictors of the popular vote, but they do give an idea of how good the 51 polls were a week before the election.

State Kerry - Bush Election Obama-McCain 2008-2004
Hawaii -1.0 8.7 41.0 42.0
Montana -21.0 -20.8 0.0 21.0
North Dakota -20.0 -27.4 0.0 20.0
California 9.0 10.3 27.0 18.0
Illinois 8.0 10.0 26.0 18.0
New Mexico -8.0 -1.1 10.0 18.0
Indiana -13.0 -20.9 3.0 16.0
Georgia -17.0 -16.7 -3.0 14.0
Iowa -3.0 -0.9 11.0 14.0
New York 21.0 17.3 34.0 13.0
South Dakota -22.0 -21.5 -9.0 13.0
Wisconsin -2.0 0.4 11.0 13.0
Wyoming -36.0 -39.9 -23.0 13.0
Alaska -27.0 -26.9 -15.0 12.0
Connecticut 9.0 10.3 21.0 12.0
New Jersey 7.0 6.2 19.0 12.0
Texas -23.0 -22.9 -11.0 12.0
Washington 5.0 7.3 17.0 12.0
North Carolina -10.0 -12.6 1.0 11.0
Michigan 8.0 3.4 18.0 10.0
Nebraska -29.0 -34.5 -19.0 10.0
Virginia -3.0 -8.7 7.0 10.0
Delaware 7.0 7.5 16.0 9.0
Maryland 10.0 12.4 19.0 9.0
Nevada -6.0 -2.6 3.0 9.0
Oklahoma -33.0 -31.2 -24.0 9.0
Ohio -1.0 -2.5 7.0 8.0
Pennsylvania 3.0 2.2 11.0 8.0
Vermont 13.0 20.2 21.0 8.0
Kansas -19.0 -25.7 -12.0 7.0
Oregon 6.0 4.0 13.0 7.0
South Carolina -18.0 -17.2 -11.0 7.0
Colorado 1.0 -6.2 7.0 6.0
Minnesota 5.0 3.5 11.0 6.0
Maine 11.0 8.1 16.0 5.0
Massachusetts 14.0 25.1 19.0 5.0
Missouri -5.0 -7.3 0.0 5.0
Florida -1.0 -5.0 3.0 4.0
Kentucky -17.0 -19.8 -13.0 4.0
D.C. 67.0 80.2 69.0 2.0
Rhode Island 20.0 20.6 22.0 2.0
Utah -37.0 -44.7 -36.0 1.0
Idaho -29.0 -38.1 -29.0 0.0
Arizona -5.0 -10.4 -6.0 -1.0
Louisiana -15.0 -14.6 -16.0 -1.0
New Hampshire 9.0 1.3 8.0 -1.0
Tennessee -12.0 -14.3 -14.0 -2.0
Mississippi -9.0 -20.3 -12.0 -3.0
West Virginia -3.0 -12.9 -8.0 -5.0
Alabama -12.0 -25.7 -20.0 -8.0
Arkansas 0.0 -9.8 -11.0 -11.0
Average -4.4 -6.0 3.9 8.3

Who I'm voting for and why

2008-10-27T20:57:00.002-04:00

Like a few others have done, I just want to share a few thoughts on the upcoming election. I'd especially like to put these thoughts in perspective of my personal story - and how my upbringing and values have remained with me and shaped my current outlook on the world.

I'll try to be brief - I know you all are busy, but I also think that voting is one of the most important responsibilities we have as American citizens. Equally, maybe more important, is that - before we vote - we have a responsibility to become informed and give a fair shot to both sides. I try not to vote Republican just because Kansas is historically Republican, or Democrat just because most of my friends are Democrat - but I try to listen to what both sides have to say, weigh the pressing issues of the time, and decide who best represents my values, and the direction I'd like things to go. I think most of you do the same thing.

My parents taught me this. They taught me to put myself in other people's shoes before thinking of myself, to work hard, and to stay grounded. Like I said above, my Catholic faith, and growing up in a loving family in the midwest (thanks mom and dad!) have formed the basis of my life, the core of who I am today. Since I left Kansas (10 years ago, wow!), I have been blessed with the opportunity to travel around the world, meet an amazing diversity of people, and attend some wonderful schools. The way I view my life so far, these more recent experiences have just helped clarify the values that I learned growing up.

I voted for George Bush in 2000 in my first election in college - because of his message of "compassionate conservatism", but also because my interpretation of my values hadn't solidified yet. I was torn between "being true to my roots" and an uncertain feeling I couldn't quite place. Honestly, another primary motivation was the abortion issue. Since then I have read, discussed, and learned a lot about that issue, which as a Pro-Life Catholic, I still feel to be one of the biggest social injustices in human history. Most importantly, I wanted to figure out the best, most effective way to limit the number of abortions (which, is the ultimate goal anyway, right?). After much back and forth, this was the issue that finally made me switch to registering as a Democrat for the first time. I know that might be surprising - given that Republicans have been known to take the abortion issue as their own - but since Roe vs Wade made abortion legal nationwide, abortion rates under Republican or Democratic presidents have been virtually identical. In fact, Democrats have been slightly more effective at reducing abortions. In a way this mirrors my own research on hurricane deaths - that countries with better health care systems, better preparedness and prevention programs suffer vastly fewer deaths during hurricane disasters - much better than countries that focus on evacuations AFTER the fact. In essence, the abortion issue is a development issue. Most abortions around the world occur in poor countries (like in Africa, where abortion is generally illegal), where women are driven to desperation and have few options. In the United States, Republicans attempt to limit abortions by making them illegal (even if RvsW was overturned - it wouldn't make all abortions immediately illegal, it would turn the decision back to the states. Women could still cross state lines for abortions, making them even more unsafe. Estimates are that in total it would reduce abortions only by 10%), and Democrats attempt to limit abortions by focusing on women's health - by preventing unwanted pregnancies before they ever happen (and by increasing resources available for teenagers and women in poverty, the two groups most likely to have abortions. Sen. Bob Casey, a pro-life Democrat from Pennsylvania (and former Jesuit Volunteer!) has put forward a plan to reduce the number of abortions by 95% in the next 10 years). To me, that approach seems to make more sense, and the studies have backed it up. I think as Catholics, we should decide the lesser of two evils between advocating for increased focus on women's health which involves the use of birth control methods to prevent unwanted pregnancies, or a less effective strategy - trying to make abortions illegal. If we can agree that saving lives is the most important issue, the first strategy seems clearly more effective.
Here's an article that explains some of these points about abortion in more detail

As a result, in 2004, I voted for John Kerry, holding my nose. To me, he seemed too much of the "east coast liberal" type to be the charismatic leader we needed at that time. During the time since 2000, I had also learned a lot more about the world. After learning about the abortion issue, I gained a much deeper understanding of other injustices that exist in the world - from child soldiers in Africa, to poverty and the environment, all these issues started to come clear for me during my time in college at SLU. For example, I learned that more children die of malaria and other easily preventable diseases in Africa each year (4 million per year) than in abortions in the United States (1.5 million per year). I started to think of these things as an extension of my parents desire for me to put myself in other people's shoes and to do the right thing. Suddenly, it became very clear for me that "sticking up for the little guy" was the right thing. For me, Democrats, in general seemed to support that view of the world. Health care for those who don't have it, lower taxes for those who can't afford it, and a calm, measured approach to moving things forward. Policies of hope rather than policies of division. As a Catholic, I couldn't be true to my faith and still vote Republican any more.

Still, my vote for Kerry was mostly a vote against George Bush - against what I still believe to be a grossly unfair, unguided war, and against the culture of fear and division that was fostered as a result. I knew that we could do better. America is better than its recent past. In 2008, I will vote for Barack Obama. Finally, I am voting FOR someone. To me, he is a symbol of America's future. You've all heard his speeches. Like millions of other people around the country and the world, I too have been inspired by his vision of what America can be if we come together. Many people have compared him to John F. Kennedy, or Martin Luther King as a generational figure in American, maybe world history. Like these historical figures, Barack Obama embodies the same values and ideals I have learned from my upbringing and my faith. He IS America - the 21st century America - with midwestern roots and values but a true global citizen. To solve the big issues, like climate change, global poverty, the economic crisis, health care, and terrorism, we need someone grounded in strong values with practical solutions, who knows that unity is better than division, and hope is more powerful than fear. We need someone to inspire us, to help us to believe in ourselves again. Because although many people might think "Barack Obama will save the world", he won't - he can't - it will be us, average people that will save the world. We just need to believe in ourselves.

Obama's 'closing arguments' in Ohio

2008-10-27T15:00:00.002-04:00

Today, Barack Obama returned to the campaign trail to deliver a soaring, inspiring speech - like the beginning of his campaign so many months ago - and to lay out the reasons why now, at this moment in history, we must decide to come together.... and why he's the person to lead us there.

Watch the end of his speech below, and be sure to vote next Tuesday.

Trend: Obama.

2008-10-27T10:03:00.001-04:00

From electoral-vote.com, a quick recap of how we got where we are today. As you can see, in the final days before the election, Obama is having some of his best (and McCain some of his worst) polling days so far.

8 days to go.

One small step on the path to 26.2

2008-10-26T21:08:00.006-04:00

I finished my first Central Park road race this morning... 5 miles in just under 40 minutes, my target time. It was a bit chilly, but I warmed up quickly. And what a beautiful day it turned out to be!

ice cubes' new meaning

2008-10-24T12:38:00.004-04:00

i'm just sorry that more people don't get to witness this on a daily (or MAYBE twice daily ;)) basis.

or this.

Today's Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 51.6%, McCain 42.0%

2008-10-22T12:13:00.002-04:00

Pollster John Zogby:

Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan's victory over Carter -- but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton's 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans.

This is Obama's biggest polling day so far for the Zogby poll, and only his second day above 50%. Yesterday was his first.

BREAKING: McCain concedes CO, NM, and IA - letting it all ride on PA

2008-10-21T10:54:00.004-04:00

With 14 days to go until the election, CNN is reporting this morning that McCain has conceded to Obama all but a clear path to victory.

Per CNN: McCain could begin pulling resources this week from Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa - all states that went to Bush in 2004 - to focus on a bigger state, Pennsylvania.

As I wrote earlier this week, Obama's easiest path to victory is to hold all the states Kerry won in 2004, and add New Mexico, Iowa, and one other swing state - like Colorado.

Today's decision by the McCain campaign means that if Obama holds Pennsylvania (where he currently leads by double digits), he will win the election.

Guess I'm going back to Scranton.

UPDATE on the McCain PA strategy from 538.com

Also, I signed up for a trip this Saturday to Wilkes-Barre, PA, a small working-class community south of Scranton where Obama struggled during the primary. Communities like this will decide the state.

Colin Powell endorses Barack Obama

2008-10-19T10:15:00.005-04:00

Watch the video:

The former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and George Bush's first Secretary of State, Colin Powell endorsed Barack Obama for president this morning. As he is known to do, he gave a very clear, level-headed assessment of the situation and stressed the importance of choosing a leader whose direction you believe in. Watch the video above -

As much momentum as Obama has gained since the first Sarah Palin skit on SNL, and the economy turning sour, and the perfect 4-0 debate performance by his ticket, there's still a little over two weeks until election day on November 4th.

Moderates and swing states have been flocking to Obama recently - as more and more people see him as the only reasonable option to put the country back on a positive path (in a poll this week, 89% of Americans believe the country is heading in the wrong direction - a record high - only 7% believe the country is heading in the right direction). The inspiring rallies in St. Louis and Kansas City yesterday, drawing his two biggest crowds of the campaign so far (100,000 in St. Louis under the Arch, and 75,000 in KC at the Liberty Memorial) are further evidence that people are eager for a new vision.

As I hinted above, the math is really starting to pile on Obama's side - but that doesn't mean it's over. The easiest path for Obama to get elected is to win all of Kerry's states in 2004 (CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI) + Iowa + New Mexico + any one of the following states (in order of likelihood):

Virginia
Colorado
Florida
North Carolina
Nevada
Ohio
Missouri

As of today, Obama is leading in all of these states. Remember, he needs just one to win. McCain on the other hand, needs to win all 7, plus a major Kerry state (MI, MN, PA or WI) to be elected. Right now, that's looking like a tough challenge.

And the "new" battleground states have been a fixture of the Republican base of the last few decades:

Indiana
West Virginia
Montana
North Dakota
Georgia
Arkansas
South Dakota
Nebraska
Mississippi
Louisiana

If Obama were to take one or more of these states, we'd really be looking at a game-changer - something that could re-define American politics for the next generation.

Here's the current electoral map:

From electoral-vote.com

Bottom line, VOTE, VOTE, VOTE - even if you think your vote won't matter, VOTE! This is a historic election. Be a part of history.

If you're one of those that are still undecided, take a look at Obama and McCain on the issues, or a tax cut calculator to see how your beliefs match with the candidates. Or, follow my favorite new website, fivethirtyeight.com to get some detailed analysis.

Way to go Katie!

2008-10-12T10:06:00.002-04:00

Quick update from Arlington, VA - and from the exact same computer I wrote my updates from during JVC in Oregon, 5 short years ago!

My good friend Katie finished her first marathon yesterday in Baltimore... awesome accomplishment. We had ice cream and beer last night to celebrate.

It's great to see her (it's been 2 years!) and to know those bits of my past (like this computer) are still running along, as healthy as ever.

Katie's going to be busy volunteering next summer in Tanzania, but if she makes it back in one piece, we're going to register for the New York Marathon together next fall. Here's to setting goals, and making them happen!

This is New York

2008-10-08T16:35:00.002-04:00

I just had dinner at a Mexican restaurant with a New Zealander, in town for a one-day conference on weather insurance products in Africa, who works for an insurance company based in England but lives in Belgrade, Serbia with his Bosnian girlfriend. Whoa!

Yet another reason why scientists sometimes make poor communicators:

2008-10-06T16:33:00.000-04:00

"INDEX-BASED financial risk transfer mechanisms are being tested in the context of development and climate change adaptation. These instruments show the capacity to dramatically reduce conditions of chronic underdevelopment by both enabling investment and reducing shocks in agricultural livelihoods. However, important issues have been raised, including the potential for scaling up and the role of climate-informed science to help overcome some of the challenges to scale up. The IRI is convening experts from fields as diverse as reinsurance, climate science, economics and food security to participate in an upcoming workshop, in an effort to gain insight on how innovative tools and research can best serve development, today. "

Why not just say, "We are trying to save poor farmers in Africa from droughts. Do you want to come here for a day conference and talk about it with us?"

What next?

2008-10-03T17:54:00.005-04:00

Now that the bailout/rescue/whatever has passed... what next?

We are at one of those turning points of American history-
The Revolutionary War
The great push West
The War between the States
Pearl Harbor
The civil rights movement
Now: The making of the green economy. The realization that we're all connected. The end of poverty.

This moment entered our consciousness on September 11th - that maybe we aren't as strong and dominant and destined to rule the world as we might think - but it has its roots going all the way back to the end of World War II. America as victor, and the entitlement that comes with it. And now, that moment in world history with America at the top is beginning to end.

But that doesn't mean we have to go all the way to the bottom. Everything we're experiencing now (now, meaning the last 10 years or so) - the rise of the internet, globalization, the energy crisis, climate change, terrorism, the stock market crash - are all related. It's just the world's way of leveling the playing field. How long have people in Africa, India, and China waited for their shot? How long have we kept them from getting it? It's not an either/or game. Everyone can be better off if we work together, if we're more respectful, if we keep each other in mind.

To me, the election this year is a fundamental part of this narrative. John McCain embodies the past. Vietnam War veteran, Iraq war supporter - both symbols of failed American influence abroad - if elected, the oldest 1st term president in history. Barack Obama - who has mobilized more than 2 million volunteers on the internet - the largest grassroots political coalition in American history - son of an African immigrant and a single mother from Kansas - a picture of 21st century America.

I can see how this is a little scary for many people. The future, the unknown, is always scary. But it is necessary if America is to survive. America has always stood for hope, as a refuge for the outcast. We can still be an example to the world - not of the power of the individual, but of the power of everyone - working together.

Listen well. Some thoughts on silence...

2008-10-02T18:55:00.001-04:00

Last night I attended a reading of two short stories at Symphony Space on the Upper West Side. Salman Rushdie hosted - and Anthony Rapp (Mark in the original cast of Rent) read the second story, "The Year of Silence" by Kevin Brockmeier, originally published in the literary journal Ecotone. Both stories were part of the 2008 edition of "30 Best American Short Stories" which, by chance, also includes my friend's sister, Karen Russell. It was a fun night, and I don't normally do this sort of thing, but I'm glad I did.

So, my thoughts on silence... (as a firetruck siren blares outside my window, and the subway rattles by...)

First, a quick synopsis of the story (skip ahead if you're planning on reading it yourself): For no apparent reason one spring morning, for a few seconds the entire city spontaneously becomes quiet - as if all the pauses of ordinary life lined up at the same moment. The next week, it happens again, for a few seconds longer. Pretty soon, these moments of silence begin to make their way into the collective consciousness in the city, people start looking forward to them, start to appreciate the sense of peace, of contentment, of being that these moments bring. The city passes a law banning all noise. Streets and sidewalks are paved with rubber, pretty soon the only sound is the birds, the rain, and the wind. And, the city is peaceful. Crime rates drop, romances begin and end as people begin to experience life in a deeper way than anyone thought possible. After several months, people begin to settle in to their new world - but something is missing. One day, all the spontaneous sounds of this nearly quiet city align - coughs, stubbed toes, dog barks. It happens again the next week. Sounds, noise, start to overtake the city again. Eventually, the ban on quiet is lifted - as people realize that their worlds had become too predictable... they needed the spark, the energy that their noisy city brought them.

As performed by Anthony Rapp (an amazing performer, and an amazing person), Kevin Brockmeier's story resonated... I could feel the entire audience in quiet assention on this. Now this was quite a liberal crowd, and some of them very well may have regular moments of voluntary silence in their lives, but they were still New Yorkers. And New Yorkers are noisy. But, it was a great thought experiment. How would we react to a world with no noise? Could we handle it?

For the times in my life where I've been able to be in silence (JVC, SLU retreats, Africa) it has been something to treasure. Now, in New York, at times I feel all the jumble that the noisy city brings, and it is overwhelming. I tell my friends that I couldn't survive the city if I didn't have a job that let me leave every day - and see the green trees of the Hudson Valley. Sometimes I wish I could quit my job and just be. Silent, reflective, contemplative. Just be. But then, what would be the fun in that?

MLB playoffs.... Day 1

2008-10-02T18:01:00.005-04:00

“I’m just being Manny,” Manny said.

Don't worry too much yet, Cubs fans.

TBS has Dennis Eckersley and Cal Ripken as commentators throughout the playoffs.... blast from the past!

This will be fun.

Day 2 UPDATE:
Ok, now you can worry, Cubs fans. =(

Huge polling day for Obama

2008-10-01T11:58:00.002-04:00

The Obama train has officially left the station, and it looks like it's going to be hard to stop.

Quinnipac, a very well-respected national polling agency, released this morning a series of pre- and post-debate swing state polls from Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. All of these polls show Obama ahead by 5-8 points. All of these polls show Obama gaining 1-2 points immediately following the first debate. Remember, assuming Obama holds Michigan and Pennsylvania (which went to Kerry in the 2004 election), Obama needs to win just one other major swing state to win the election. McCain needs to win them all.

This is quickly becoming a show-stopper for McCain. His ship is sinking, and I think he knows it.

Next up: Palin gets the boot.

2008-10-01T01:05:00.001-04:00

You heard it here first... the next trick up the sleeve of John McCain will be to unofficially send Sarah Palin on the next flight back to Alaska. Of course, this would be under the pretext of Sarah 'deciding for herself' that family comes first, and that another choice for VP might be better suited to put 'country first'. With the economy crashing by the minute, the obvious choice would be Mitt Romney - someone with economic experience that would need little or no introduction on the national scene. It just might be crazy enough to work.

This has happened before, and with McCain's flair for the dramatic, I wouldn't put it past him. Even conservatives are starting to turn against Palin. The debate tomorrow vs. Biden should go a long way in deciding Palin's short term fate (and long term future as a national political figure). If the boot happens, the guys at fivethirtyeight.com seem to think it would mean surrender for McCain. But then again, you never know. Maybe this is the October surprise that brings the race back to a tie.

Polling-wise, the combination of the stock market crash (and how both candidates handled it) and the first presidential debate (the first introduction to the candidates for a lot of armchair voters) seemed to solidify support for Obama on the national level (the race has gone from basically a tie 10 days ago to Obama +5 today). Most importantly, a lot of swing states have recently also been strongly trending toward Obama - namely Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida (and to a lesser extent, Ohio, Indiana and Missouri). Assuming Iowa and New Mexico go to Obama - he needs to win only one of these 6 to win the election.

Letter to Nancy Boyda (D-KS)

2008-09-30T12:19:00.001-04:00

Here's a copy of a letter I just sent to my representative, Nancy Boyda.

Hi Nancy,

The House messaging service is down right now, but I wanted to send you a quick note. Sorry if you're being bombarded!

I have to admit, I was a little disappointed when I saw that you voted against the bailout package yesterday. But, after reading your statements, I agree that the money could and should be spent more wisely than was proposed. Especially for things like building the new green energy economy, and making sure those jobs stay here, so our economy is stronger in the future.

My main issue is that you seem to be taking a partisan stance. I understand you're in a close re-election campaign, and the people of KS-02 are probably strongly against any more of their tax money being thrown into the fire on this problem. But this problem - the biggest economic crisis since the great depression - is bigger than partisan politics. And I do think congressional action sooner rather than later - even if it's just a start, is absolutely vital to instilling a bit of confidence in the markets and getting us back on track. The downside risks are too great for inaction.

That said, I trust your judgement and your priorities. It's going to be a tough couple of weeks.

Best of luck on the re-election campaign.

Eric Holthaus
Osage City, KS
currently New York, NY

10/2 UPDATE:
The House passed the Senate-altered version of the bailout package today - which included such things as an extra $100B of tax breaks for small businesses and alternative energy in order to win more votes. The bill is designed that when (if!) the market recovers, all $700B will be paid back to the taxpayers from the companies being bailed out.

Boyda still voted no. But, this is understandable as she's in a close race for re-election. And, I agree with her - now that we've bailed out wall street, we need to focus on bailing out main street. (Green Jobs for Kansas!)

MLB playoffs start tonight!

2008-09-30T11:48:00.003-04:00

After 6 months of battling it out day after day (and a rough weekend series for the Twins versus my 4th-place Royals), the White Sox and Twins are tied for the AL Central lead. A one game playoff tonight will decide the division champion.

After that, it's on.

Personally, (like many other dreamers) I'm picking the Cubs to win the Series this year. The story is just too great, and the team is too deep not to like them. 100 years since their last championship. Great starting pitchers. So, Cubs over Tampa Bay in 6 games.

***
As for me, I won my (not very active) fantasy baseball league this year. I've played about 5 different years now, and won twice. It's a lot of fun. Here's the final standings and my roster throughout the season.

Debate (maybe) cancelled

2008-09-25T10:47:00.003-04:00

Yesterday afternoon, McCain "suspended his campaign" to focus on travelling back to Washington to help out with the negotiations over the proposed $700B bailout of the economy. Interesting wording, "suspended" - I've only heard that word used when candidates withdraw from the primary races. McCain immediately pulled all his advertising, cancelled his appearance on Letterman, and has asked to postpone Friday's debate.

I'm bummed, because presidential debates are like the superbowl for politicos. At fivethirtyeight.com, there's a good post that relates the two - and how people look forward to the debates for months... if they don't happen, you're going to feel a little disappointed.

Bush's speech last night actually went a long way toward convincing me that the bailout is necessary. Expensive, yes, but necessary. Because, we don't want the economy to grind to a halt. And, I am definitely convinced (and have been for awhile) that this is the biggest financial crisis since the great depression. In a sense, it is the culmination of American exceptionalism since the end of WWII, our lives of excess, our huge footprint on the greater world order... all of that is coming home to roost. And what a fitting end to the Bush presidency.

Elsewhere,
Houston/Galveston is still suffering the effects of Hurricane Ike, and will be for weeks and years to come. Galveston residents were allowed back to their homes for the first time since the storm yesterday, and many were shocked at what they found. Nashville and other places in the southeast have been in a gas crisis all week (caused by lack of supply from Houston) with massive shortages and prices topping $5/gal in places. None of this is making the news. Granted, the overall problems with the economy, and a close presidential race are arguably more important, but still, we've had a major natural disaster, and people are suffering (not unlike during the hurricanes of 2004 and 2005).

And,
I'm heading to Shea tonight to see the Mets and Cubs. I'm excited. I have a feeling the playoffs are going to be great this year. It's cool and cloudy in new york tonight... definitely feels like pennant chase weather.

UPDATE:
Per the Wall Street Journal, Congress has agreed tentatively to the $700B bailout, including strong oversight of the interventions and a $400K cap on executive salaries. Still waiting to see if this means McCain will show up in Mississippi tomorrow night or not.

To put the bailout in perspective, from MSNBC:

Just how big is the proposed Wall Street bailout? Let's look at how it compares to some other numbers...

-- $700 billion: proposed Wall St. bailout
-- $695.4 billion: GDP of Taiwan. If the bailout were a country it would be the 21st largest GDP, larger than most nations.
-- $653 billion: cost of Iraq war (so far)
-- $515.4 billion: proposed 2009 Pentagon budget
-- $315 billion: McCain's nuclear energy plan
-- $295 billion: amount Pentagon overspent original budgets by.
-- $150 billion: Obama's energy plan
-- $50-$65 billion: Obama's health care plan, per year
-- $59.2 billion: proposed 2009 U.S. education budget
-- $10 billion: McCain health care proposals, per year
-- $38 million: Hank Paulson's post-2004 salary as Chairman, CEO of Goldman Sachs
-- 16.1 million: number of median Ohio household incomes ($43,371 as of 2004) that would add up to the bailout -- or about THREE Ohios.

UPDATE #2:
McCain has just confirmed he will attend the debate tonight.

I'm so excited for Thanksgiving in Tennessee... =)

2008-09-22T16:28:00.002-04:00

from becca, my old, good, Tennessee friend:

so, i'll tell you about the farm since you are going! it is kind of interesting there. i maybe should have told you before you decided to come, but i don't think you'll have a problem with anything. its in the middle of nowhere in McEwen, TN, west of Nashville. the town has no traffic light. There is a Dairy Queen that has everything you could imagine. Like everything. They have meat and three stuff and all sorts of craziness. There is a little Catholic church and school. Maybe 1 other restaurant, a pizza place... that may be it. Oh, there is a new gas station that has pizza and has Baskin Robbins! Oh, and there is a new Sonic which was a big deal. But no McDonalds! How fun is that! The farm is maybe 10 minutes from town. We have a couple hundred acres I think. The farmhouse is kind of old. The original burnt to the ground in I think 1925ish and the neighboring farmers all chipped in materials and help to rebuild it. It looks and seems older than it is, I guess because of that. There is the house, a barn, and some other little buildings like a smoke house, outhouse, wood shed, and a couple more that had old farmy purposes. Inside the house, there are beds everywhere. We added a bathroom a few years ago, so there is now a toilet that flushes! and a shower! and a sink outside of the kitchen! before that we used the outhouse, which some people still do cause there is always someone in the bathroom, or go behind a tree. When I was little we would all go down there for a week with the moms and we would take baths in the creek. Anyway, there are 2 front rooms. one has a big bed where my parents sleep, and the wood burning stove for heating the house is in there, and some chairs. it is the hang out room often. the other front room has three beds- i sleep in one that i have slept in forever. everyone else (of the cousins) decided they had to sleep upstairs b/c there are several adults who snore downstairs, but i just bring my ipod and deal with it. My Aunt Marie and Uncle Pete have a bed in that room, and there is another bed that is not really designated for anyone. We have this cousin, Anne, who is around my parents age and she stays sometime and sleeps there, but she doesn't seem to like to stay a lot. The bathroom is off that room too. There is the back bedroom where Uncle Jerry and Aunt Beba sleep. There is a dining room and a kitchen. Off the dining room are the stairs that go up to the loft area, which is full of beds. Tons of beds. My cousins sleep up there (Angela and her husband Jessi, Ab and his girlfriend Raven if she comes, Lori and her husband Jake, Josh, and Lindsey, my sister and her husband and the babies if they stay there, and friends if anyone else brings friends which they usually do). You'll probably have a bed up there, or if Anne is not going to stay overnight then you can sleep in the other bed downstairs if you want. Outside we have a fire pit and seats and stuff around it. so, there will be probably 16 people, 17 if cousin Anne stays, and 4 more if my sister and her family stays. I think they will stay with Jason's family though and just hang out at the farm some cause Jason's family has a modern house in town. Oh, you can't drink the water cause it is well water and we don't know if it is safe. So we always bring bottled water, but the water is fine for showers and cooking hot stuff and teeth brushing, and I am sure would be fine if you didn't drink too much. But we bring water. There is always a lot of food. We'll probably just be there for Thanksgiving dinner on Thursday, which will hopefully have enough veggie stuff for you. We usually have sweet potato something, mashed potatoes, green beans, corn, stuffing, cranberry sauce stuff, rolls, and then turkey of course. If there is something else you want me and you can make something and take it down to contribute.

can't wait. =)

Scranton, PA

2008-09-19T11:38:00.003-04:00

On Saturday, I spent the day in Scranton, Pennsylvania with a large bunch of other Obama supporters from the New York area - knocking on doors and talking to undecided voters. As Pennsylvania is considered a swing state (or at best, "lean Obama"), time spent there is much more useful than time spent back in Brooklyn. As many studies have shown, for approximately every 14 door knocks, one new vote is generated from someone that otherwise would have stayed home, or voted the other way (compared to 1 vote for 35 phone calls, or a negligible impact for email forwards). Knocking on doors is the single most important thing you can do to help generate more votes for your candidate.

Scranton was big Hillary country in the Primaries, but is also home to Obama's VP running-mate Joe Biden. It's a very catholic, blue-collar, union, hard-working city. The main issues people talked about were the economy, the war, and abortion. (The NY Times had an article last week about the Catholic vote in Scranton.

The Scranton office was packed with volunteers. There was, conservatively, probably about 400 volunteers going canvassing. Their goal was 10,000 door knocks on Saturday alone, and I'd be surprised if they didn't reach that goal (I did about 40-50 doors myself). All in all, it was a very rewarding experience - I'm planning on going a couple more times before the election.

If you live in or near a swing state (per MSNBC:

Lean Obama: IA, MN, NJ, NM OR, PA, WA (76 votes)
Toss-up: CO, MI, NV, NH, OH, VA, WI (78 votes)
Lean McCain: FL, IN, MO, MT, NC (67 votes)

I strongly encourage you to go to www.barackobama.com or your local Obama field office (example: ny.barackobama.com for new york) and sign up for some door knocking yourself. It's fun!

Our New York-Scranton PA group on Saturday.

The highlight of the IRI retreat

2008-09-19T10:49:00.002-04:00

Yesterday was our first organization-wide long-range planning happy-feely work retreat in 4 years. It actually turned out to be a pretty fun chance to bond with my co-workers, meet people down the hall that I always see but have never talked to, and build up excitement in a nerdy, saving the world sort of way.

Here was the highlight, sung by my co-worker and friend Judy to the tune of 'Summertime' by Gershwin:

It's CRM baby @ the IRI

Climate's Changin'
And the weather is tricky
Ice caps meltin'
And the temperature's high

It's feast not famine
For the folks in Malawi
If the rains are late
Still the children won't cry

You've got your payout
There's a'nothin' can harm you
Weather index insurance standing by

Don't waste no water
In greater metro Manila
Now you've shared the rains
With the peasants nearby

With your new contracts
There's a'nothin' can harm you
Probabilities shifting: forty for dry

It's CRM Baby
@ the IRI

State	Kerry - Bush	Election	Obama-McCain	2008-2004
Hawaii	-1.0	8.7	41.0	42.0
Montana	-21.0	-20.8	0.0	21.0
North Dakota	-20.0	-27.4	0.0	20.0
California	9.0	10.3	27.0	18.0
Illinois	8.0	10.0	26.0	18.0
New Mexico	-8.0	-1.1	10.0	18.0
Indiana	-13.0	-20.9	3.0	16.0
Georgia	-17.0	-16.7	-3.0	14.0
Iowa	-3.0	-0.9	11.0	14.0
New York	21.0	17.3	34.0	13.0
South Dakota	-22.0	-21.5	-9.0	13.0
Wisconsin	-2.0	0.4	11.0	13.0
Wyoming	-36.0	-39.9	-23.0	13.0
Alaska	-27.0	-26.9	-15.0	12.0
Connecticut	9.0	10.3	21.0	12.0
New Jersey	7.0	6.2	19.0	12.0
Texas	-23.0	-22.9	-11.0	12.0
Washington	5.0	7.3	17.0	12.0
North Carolina	-10.0	-12.6	1.0	11.0
Michigan	8.0	3.4	18.0	10.0
Nebraska	-29.0	-34.5	-19.0	10.0
Virginia	-3.0	-8.7	7.0	10.0
Delaware	7.0	7.5	16.0	9.0
Maryland	10.0	12.4	19.0	9.0
Nevada	-6.0	-2.6	3.0	9.0
Oklahoma	-33.0	-31.2	-24.0	9.0
Ohio	-1.0	-2.5	7.0	8.0
Pennsylvania	3.0	2.2	11.0	8.0
Vermont	13.0	20.2	21.0	8.0
Kansas	-19.0	-25.7	-12.0	7.0
Oregon	6.0	4.0	13.0	7.0
South Carolina	-18.0	-17.2	-11.0	7.0
Colorado	1.0	-6.2	7.0	6.0
Minnesota	5.0	3.5	11.0	6.0
Maine	11.0	8.1	16.0	5.0
Massachusetts	14.0	25.1	19.0	5.0
Missouri	-5.0	-7.3	0.0	5.0
Florida	-1.0	-5.0	3.0	4.0
Kentucky	-17.0	-19.8	-13.0	4.0
D.C.	67.0	80.2	69.0	2.0
Rhode Island	20.0	20.6	22.0	2.0
Utah	-37.0	-44.7	-36.0	1.0
Idaho	-29.0	-38.1	-29.0	0.0
Arizona	-5.0	-10.4	-6.0	-1.0
Louisiana	-15.0	-14.6	-16.0	-1.0
New Hampshire	9.0	1.3	8.0	-1.0
Tennessee	-12.0	-14.3	-14.0	-2.0
Mississippi	-9.0	-20.3	-12.0	-3.0
West Virginia	-3.0	-12.9	-8.0	-5.0
Alabama	-12.0	-25.7	-20.0	-8.0
Arkansas	0.0	-9.8	-11.0	-11.0
Average	-4.4	-6.0	3.9	8.3